Week 3
Ohio Stadium

Ohio9 @FINAL 37Ohio State , Week 3, Sep 13, 2025

1-1 MAC Power rating: -0.3
2-0 Big Ten Power rating: 30.6

How did the line hold up?

Market line
OSU -28.5
PM Implied
OSU -22.7
Blue Chip model
OSU -33.9
Edge
+5.4OSU
See details
◂ favors OHIOfavors OSU ▸Market: OSU -28.5
30.9 › OSU
Adjust the power ratings by team
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OSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 OHIO2 OSU4 OHIO4 OSU6 OHIO6 OSUModel: OSU -33.9

Betting information

Spread
OSU -28.5
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
OHIO 10.5 – 39.0 OSU
Prediction markets
OSU 99% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ohio State defeated Ohio 37–9 in a dominant performance. Ohio covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 3.5. The market closed at Ohio State -28.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ohio State -33.9 - a gap of 5.4 points toward Ohio State, of which 4.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Ohio vs Ohio State?

Ohio State

Offensive Explosion Led by Sayin and Smith

Julian Sayin threw for 347 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Jeremiah Smith had 9 catches for 153 yards and 2 scores, including a 47-yard TD. The Buckeyes totaled 572 yards, with four plays of 42+ yards, showing a potent passing attack that could dominate future opponents.

Second-Half Dominance After Slow Start

Ohio State led only 13-3 at halftime and allowed Ohio to pull within 13-9 early in the third quarter. However, the Buckeyes scored on four straight drives to pull away, demonstrating resilience and ability to adjust, but also highlighting a need for better first-half execution.

Turnover Issues and Defensive Lapses

Sayin threw two interceptions, and the defense allowed a 67-yard touchdown pass. Coach Ryan Day will focus on correcting these mistakes during the bye week before Big Ten play, as such errors could be costly against stronger competition.

Bye Week Before Key Big Ten Opener

Ohio State has a bye next week before traveling to Washington on Sept. 27. This extra time will be crucial for refining the offense, reducing turnovers, and preparing for a tougher conference schedule.

What were the weather conditions for Ohio vs Ohio State?

At kickoff, conditions at Ohio Stadium were Clear, 72°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Ohio travels 68 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Ohio State won by 28 in a dominant performance.

Ohio covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 3.5 points.

How do Ohio and Ohio State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ohio State (30.6) over Ohio (-0.3) by 30.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ohio State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Ohio State won and Ohio covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Clear

72°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity61%
Wind2 mph SW
Gusts3 mph
Wind map for Ohio at Ohio State: aerial view of Ohio Stadium, wind from the SW at 1.6 mph, gusting to 2.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM EDT
Venue
Ohio Stadium
Capacity
102,780
Elevation
719 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure OhioAway Ohio StateHome
This week68 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total896 miles0 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest7 days7 days