DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
SMU defeated Missouri State 28–10 to secure a comfortable win. Missouri State covered by 11.5; Game went Under by 22.5. The market closed at SMU -29.5 and the Blue Chip model made it SMU -21.3 - a gap of 8.3 points toward Missouri State, of which 7.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Missouri State jumped to a 10-0 lead and showed competitiveness, but three interceptions by QB Jacob Clark (including one in the red zone) allowed SMU to rally and score 28 unanswered points.
Jacob Clark threw for 275 yards and a touchdown, demonstrating the Bears' ability to move the ball through the air against an FBS opponent.
After a strong first half, the defense allowed SMU to score on consecutive drives late in the second quarter and gave up two more touchdowns in the second half, including a 37-yard run.
The Bears have shown they can compete (close loss to SMU, win over Marshall) but consistency and limiting mistakes remain key challenges as they adjust to the higher level.
Missouri State faces UT Martin next Saturday, a game that offers a chance to regroup and build confidence against a familiar FCS opponent before continuing their FBS schedule.
At kickoff, conditions at Plaster Sports Complex were Sunny, 84°F, heat index 88°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Sunny
84°F
| Measure | SMUAway | Missouri StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 360 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 1,199 miles |
| Season total | 360 miles | 4,041 miles |
| Body clock | 14:30 | 14:30 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
