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Week 3 •
Jerry Richardson Stadium

Monmouth35 @FINAL 42Charlotte

0-0 CAA Power rating: -14.0
0-2 American Power rating: -21.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
COLLE -3.0
PM Implied
COLLE -1.9
Blue Chip model
MONM -6.8
Edge
-9.8MONM
See details
◂ favors MONMfavors COLLE ▸Market: COLLE -3.0
MONM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
COLLE
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 MONM5 COLLE10 MONM10 COLLEModel: MONM -6.8

Betting information

Spread
COLLE -3.0
Total
66.5
Odds implied score
MONM 31.8 – 34.8 COLLE
Prediction markets
COLLE 58% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Charlotte defeated Monmouth 42–35 in a one-score game. Charlotte covered by 4.0; Game went Over by 10.5. The market closed at Charlotte -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Monmouth -6.8 - a gap of 9.8 points toward Monmouth, of which 9.1 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Monmouth 7.9 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Monmouth vs Charlotte?

Monmouth

High-Powered Passing Attack

Derek Robinson threw for 410 yards and 4 touchdowns on 36-of-49 passing, showing the offense can move the ball effectively against an FBS opponent.

Inability to Hold Leads

Monmouth led 7-0, 14-7, and 21-14 but could not maintain momentum, allowing Charlotte to score three touchdowns in the third quarter and eventually win.

Defensive Struggles Against Big Plays

The defense allowed 382 passing yards and 5 total touchdowns from Charlotte's quarterback, including a 55-yard reception that set up the game-winning score.

Late-Game Execution Issues

On the final drive, Monmouth ran eight plays but only gained 14 yards and turned the ball over on downs, failing to convert in a critical moment.

Charlotte

Offensive Explosion Led by Harrell and Mason

Quarterback Conner Harrell threw for 382 yards and accounted for five touchdowns, including a game-winning run. Wide receiver E. Jai Mason had a breakout game with 10 receptions for 228 yards and two touchdowns, setting the stage for a potent passing attack.

Resilience in a Back-and-Forth Contest

Charlotte never led by more than a touchdown and had to overcome deficits of 7-0, 14-7, and 21-14. The team scored three touchdowns in the third quarter to take control, showing the ability to respond under pressure.

Defensive Struggles Against the Pass

The defense allowed Monmouth's quarterback Derek Robinson to complete 36 of 49 passes for 410 yards and four touchdowns. This vulnerability could be exploited by future opponents with strong passing games.

Clutch Performance in the Final Minutes

Harrell's 55-yard pass to Mason set up his own go-ahead touchdown run with 1:30 left, and the defense forced a turnover on downs on Monmouth's final drive. This demonstrated the team's ability to execute in critical moments.

First Win of the Season Builds Momentum

After starting 0-2, this victory gives Charlotte its first win of the season. The offensive production and late-game composure provide a foundation for improvement heading into the next game.

What were the weather conditions for Monmouth vs Charlotte?

At kickoff, conditions at Jerry Richardson Stadium were Clear, 69°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Monmouth travels 503 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Charlotte won by 7 in a one-score game.

Charlotte covered the spread.

The total went Over by 10.5 points.

How do Monmouth and Charlotte compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Monmouth (-14.0) over Charlotte (-21.9) by 7.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Charlotte faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Charlotte brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Monmouth and Charlotte?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Charlotte won and Charlotte covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Clear

69°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity63%
Wind5 mph ESE
Gusts10 mph
Wind map for Monmouth at Charlotte: aerial view of Jerry Richardson Stadium, wind from the ESE at 4.9 mph, gusting to 10.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM EDT
Venue
Jerry Richardson Stadium
Capacity
15,314
Elevation
643 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

MonmouthAway CharlotteHome
This week503 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total503 miles17 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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