Week 3 •
Neyland Stadium

Georgia44 @FINAL 41Tennessee , Week 3, Sep 13, 2025

2-0 SEC Power rating: 18.8
2-0 SEC Power rating: 18.0

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UGA -3.5
PM Implied
UGA -3.0
Blue Chip model
TENN -2.0
Edge
+5.5TENN
See details
◂ favors UGAfavors TENN ▸Market: UGA -3.5
UGA
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TENN
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 UGA2 TENN4 UGA4 TENN6 UGA6 TENNModel: TENN -2.0

Betting information

Spread
UGA -3.5
Total
50.5
Odds implied score
UGA 27.0 – 23.5 TENN
Prediction markets
UGA 62% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Georgia defeated Tennessee 44–41 in a nail-biter. Tennessee covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 34.5. The market closed at Georgia -3.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Tennessee -2.0 - a gap of 5.5 points toward Tennessee, of which 4.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Georgia vs Tennessee?

Georgia

Resilient comeback victory

Georgia overcame three deficits, including a 14-point first-quarter hole, to win 44-41 in overtime. This shows the team's mental toughness and ability to perform under pressure, which will be crucial in future close games.

Offensive execution improves under Stockton

Quarterback Gunner Stockton threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns, also rushing for a TD. The offense finally executed as planned, with success in the power game, setting a positive trajectory for the next game.

Secondary dominance

Georgia's secondary frustrated Tennessee's passing game, limiting big plays after the first quarter. This defensive strength will be key against Alabama's potent offense in the next game.

Key players step up in clutch moments

Josh McCray's 1-yard OT touchdown and Nate Frazier's 21-yard run set up the win. London Humphreys caught a crucial fourth-down fade for a tying touchdown. These performances indicate reliable playmakers in critical situations.

Open date before Alabama showdown

Georgia has an open date next week before hosting Alabama on Sept. 27. This extra time allows for rest, preparation, and game-planning for a top-tier opponent, potentially giving them an edge.

Tennessee

Offensive Firepower but Defensive Lapses

Tennessee's offense, led by QB Joey Aguilar (371 yards, 4 TDs passing, 1 rushing TD), was explosive, especially in the first quarter with a 21-7 lead. However, the defense allowed Georgia to rally from three deficits, including a game-tying drive in the final minutes, highlighting a need for improved late-game execution.

Special Teams Costly Miss

Kicker Max Gilbert missed a 43-yard field goal as time expired in regulation that would have won the game, then made a 42-yarder in overtime but it wasn't enough. This underscores the volatility of special teams and the importance of reliable kicking in close games.

Resilience but Margin for Error Shrinks

Despite the loss, Tennessee showed resilience by coming from behind twice in the second half. However, the defeat eliminates their margin for error in playoff hopes, meaning they must win out to stay in contention.

Wide Receiver Standouts

Chris Brazzell III had a huge game with three touchdown catches (72, 14, 66 yards), and Braylon Staley added a 32-yard TD. This receiving corps is a major strength, but they need consistent production to offset defensive struggles.

Next Game: Favorable Matchup

Tennessee hosts UAB next Saturday, a non-conference game that should be a bounce-back opportunity. The Vols will look to correct defensive issues and build momentum before tougher SEC games ahead.

What were the weather conditions for Georgia vs Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Neyland Stadium were Sunny, 75°F with winds of 1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Georgia travels 142 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Georgia won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Tennessee covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 34.5 points.

How do Georgia and Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Georgia (18.8) over Tennessee (18.0) by 0.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Tennessee faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Georgia won and Tennessee covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

75°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity57%
Wind1 mph NNE
Gusts3 mph
Wind map for Georgia at Tennessee: aerial view of Neyland Stadium, wind from the NNE at 1.3 mph, gusting to 2.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Neyland Stadium
Capacity
101,915
Elevation
899 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure GeorgiaAway TennesseeHome
This week142 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total142 miles308 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days7 days