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Week 3 •
Joe Aillet Stadium

New Mexico State14 @FINAL 49Louisiana Tech

2-0 CUSA Power rating: -20.6
1-1 CUSA Power rating: -5.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
LT -10.0
PM Implied
LT -7.2
Blue Chip model
LT -18.6
Edge
+8.6LT
See details
◂ favors NMSUfavors LT ▸Market: LT -10.0
15.1 › LT
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
LT
no impact
no impact
no impact
LT
5 NMSU5 LT10 NMSU10 LTModel: LT -18.6

Betting information

Spread
LT -10.0
Total
42.5
Odds implied score
NMSU 16.3 – 26.3 LT
Prediction markets
LT 76% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Louisiana Tech defeated New Mexico State 49–14 in a dominant performance. Louisiana Tech covered by 25.0; Game went Over by 20.5. The market closed at Louisiana Tech -10.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Louisiana Tech -18.6 - a gap of 8.6 points toward Louisiana Tech, of which 7.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech?

At kickoff, conditions at Joe Aillet Stadium were Clear, 82°F, heat index 84°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

New Mexico State travels 823 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

New Mexico State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Louisiana Tech won by 35 in a dominant performance.

Louisiana Tech covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 20.5 points.

How do New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Louisiana Tech (-5.5) over New Mexico State (-20.6) by 15.1 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Louisiana Tech brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Louisiana Tech won and Louisiana Tech covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Clear

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity59%
Wind4 mph NW
Gusts8 mph
Heat index84°F
Wind map for New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech: aerial view of Joe Aillet Stadium, wind from the NW at 3.8 mph, gusting to 8.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Joe Aillet Stadium
Capacity
23,000
Elevation
269 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

New Mexico StateAway Louisiana TechHome
This week823 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game340 miles
Season total823 miles340 miles
Body clock17:3018:30
Rest6 days7 days

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