26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 3 •
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)

Memphis28 @FINAL 7Troy

2-0 American Power rating: 6.6
1-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -7.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MEM -4.5
PM Implied
MEM -3.3
Blue Chip model
MEM -11.6
Edge
-7.1MEM
See details
◂ favors MEMfavors TROY ▸Market: MEM -4.5
‹ 13.9 MEM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TROY
no impact
no impact
no impact
TROY
5 MEM5 TROYModel: MEM -11.6

Betting information

Spread
MEM -4.5
Total
51.5
Odds implied score
MEM 28.0 – 23.5 TROY
Prediction markets
MEM 63% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Memphis defeated Troy 28–7 to secure a comfortable win. Memphis covered by 16.5; Game went Under by 16.5. The market closed at Memphis -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Memphis -11.6 - a gap of 7.1 points toward Memphis, of which 5.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Memphis vs Troy?

Memphis

Dominant rushing attack led by Sutton Smith

Sutton Smith ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns, leading Memphis to 217 total rushing yards. This ground game control was key to the win and suggests a strong run-first identity moving forward.

Stifling defensive performance

Memphis held Troy to only 112 total yards and prevented them from crossing midfield until late in the fourth quarter. The defense forced a key interception at the goal line, showing they can shut down opposing offenses.

Second-half scoring struggles

The only score in the second half was a late touchdown run by Makari Bodiford. Memphis failed to maintain offensive momentum after halftime, which could be a concern against tougher opponents.

Turnover vulnerability

Quarterback Brendon Lewis was strip-sacked, leading to a fumble returned for a Troy touchdown. Protecting the ball will be critical to avoid giving up easy scores in future games.

Troy

Offensive Struggles

Troy's offense managed only 112 total yards and did not cross midfield until late in the fourth quarter, indicating significant issues with moving the ball and sustaining drives.

Defensive Bright Spot

The defense forced a fumble that was returned for a touchdown by Taleeq Robbins, providing the team's only score and showing potential for creating turnovers.

Turnover Troubles

The offense committed a costly interception on a goal-to-go situation from the 5-yard line, highlighting a tendency to turn the ball over in critical moments.

Lack of Rushing Attack

With Memphis holding Troy to minimal rushing yards, the team struggled to establish a ground game, which could be a key area to address in preparation for the next opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Memphis vs Troy?

At kickoff, conditions at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) were Sunny, 86°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Memphis travels 326 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Memphis won by 21 to secure a comfortable win.

Memphis covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 16.5 points.

How do Memphis and Troy compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Memphis (6.6) over Troy (-7.3) by 13.9 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Troy faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Troy brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Memphis and Troy?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Memphis won and Memphis covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

86°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity41%
Wind6 mph ENE
Gusts7 mph
Wind map for Memphis at Troy: aerial view of Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL), wind from the ENE at 5.6 mph, gusting to 6.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Capacity
61,831
Elevation
548 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

MemphisAway TroyHome
This week326 miles0 miles
Last week666 miles536 miles
Season total992 miles536 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days

Other games this week