26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 3 •
Mountain America Stadium

Texas State15 @FINAL 34Arizona State

2-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -5.8
1-1 Big 12 Power rating: 7.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ASU -18.5
PM Implied
ASU -12.5
Blue Chip model
ASU -16.3
Edge
-2.2TXST
See details
◂ favors TXSTfavors ASU ▸Market: ASU -18.5
13.2 › ASU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ASU
no impact
ASU
no impact
ASU
1 TXST1 ASU2 TXST2 ASUModel: ASU -16.3

Betting information

Spread
ASU -18.5
Total
61.5
Odds implied score
TXST 21.5 – 40.0 ASU
Prediction markets
ASU 89% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arizona State defeated Texas State 34–15 to secure a comfortable win. Arizona State covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 12.5. The market closed at Arizona State -18.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Arizona State -16.3, an edge of 2.2 points toward Texas State.

What were the weather conditions for Texas State vs Arizona State?

At kickoff, conditions at Mountain America Stadium were Clear, 79°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Texas State travels 860 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Arizona State won by 19 to secure a comfortable win.

Arizona State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 12.5 points.

How do Texas State and Arizona State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arizona State (7.4) over Texas State (-5.8) by 13.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Arizona State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Texas State and Arizona State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arizona State won and Arizona State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 14, 2025 Game-time

Clear

79°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity26%
Wind2 mph S
Gusts3 mph
Wind map for Texas State at Arizona State: aerial view of Mountain America Stadium, wind from the S at 1.6 mph, gusting to 3.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM MST
Venue
Mountain America Stadium
Capacity
53,599
Elevation
1,220 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Texas StateAway Arizona StateHome
This week860 miles0 miles
Last week93 miles2,668 miles
Season total953 miles2,668 miles
Body clock21:3019:30
Rest8 days8 days

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