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Week 3 •
Hard Rock Stadium

South Florida12 @FINAL 49Miami

2-0 American Power rating: 9.5
2-0 ACC Power rating: 21.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MIA -17.5
PM Implied
MIA -11.4
Blue Chip model
MIA -13.6
Edge
-3.9USF
See details
◂ favors USFfavors MIA ▸Market: MIA -17.5
12.0 › MIA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MIA
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 USF2 MIA4 USF4 MIAModel: MIA -13.6

Betting information

Spread
MIA -17.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
USF 19.5 – 37.0 MIA
Prediction markets
MIA 87% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Miami defeated South Florida 49–12 in a dominant performance. Miami covered by 19.5; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at Miami -17.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami -13.6 - a gap of 3.9 points toward South Florida, of which 3.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for South Florida vs Miami?

South Florida

Offensive Struggles Against Top Defense

USF's offense, led by QB Byrum Brown, was held to 12 points and struggled to sustain drives, with Brown throwing his first interception in 252 attempts. The Bulls managed only 274 passing yards and one touchdown, far below their previous output.

Defensive Lapses Exposed

The Bulls' defense allowed 49 points and 340 passing yards to Miami QB Carson Beck, including three touchdown passes. They were unable to stop the run, giving up 120 yards and two TDs to Mark Fletcher Jr., and were outscored 64-6 over the last 60 minutes of play dating back to last season.

Missed Opportunities in Red Zone

A critical fourth-and-3 stop by Miami at the USF 9 late in the third quarter, with the Bulls trailing 28-6, effectively ended any comeback hopes. This failure to convert in the red zone highlighted USF's inability to finish drives against a ranked opponent.

Inconsistent Execution After Strong Start

Despite entering the game with wins over ranked Boise State and Florida, USF failed to execute as they had in previous games, according to coach Alex Golesh. The team looked out of sync, especially after a weather delay, and could not replicate their earlier success.

Next Game: Opportunity to Rebound

USF hosts South Carolina State next Saturday, providing a chance to regroup and address offensive and defensive issues before facing another ranked opponent. The Bulls will need to improve red zone efficiency and defensive consistency to get back on track.

What were the weather conditions for South Florida vs Miami?

At kickoff, conditions at Hard Rock Stadium were Partly cloudy, 77°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

South Florida travels 197 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Miami won by 37 in a dominant performance.

Miami covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do South Florida and Miami compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Miami (21.5) over South Florida (9.5) by 12.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Miami brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.6). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on South Florida and Miami?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Miami won and Miami covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity93%
Wind10 mph NE
Gusts13 mph
Wind map for South Florida at Miami: aerial view of Hard Rock Stadium, wind from the NE at 9.8 mph, gusting to 12.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
04:30 PM EDT
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Capacity
64,767
Elevation
43 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

South FloridaAway MiamiHome
This week197 miles0 miles
Last week231 milesHome game
Season total428 miles0 miles
Body clock16:3016:30
Rest7 days7 days

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