Week 3
Mackay Stadium

Middle Tennessee14 @FINAL 13Nevada , Week 3, Sep 13, 2025

0-2 CUSA Power rating: -20.5
1-1 MW Power rating: -16.9

How did the line hold up?

Market line
NEV -9.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
NEV -7.6
Edge
-1.9MTSU
See details
◂ favors MTSUfavors NEV ▸Market: NEV -9.5
3.6 › NEV
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1 MTSU1 NEV2 MTSU2 NEVModel: NEV -7.6

Betting information

Spread
NEV -9.5
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
MTSU 20.0 – 29.5 NEV

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Middle Tennessee defeated Nevada 14–13 in a nail-biter. Middle Tennessee covered by 10.5; Game went Under by 22.5. The market closed at Nevada -9.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Nevada -7.6, an edge of 1.9 points toward Middle Tennessee. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Nevada 3.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Middle Tennessee vs Nevada?

Middle Tennessee

Late-game resilience and clutch performance

Middle Tennessee was shut out until the final 6.5 minutes, then scored two touchdowns to win 14-13. QB Nicholas Vattiato led a 76-yard drive in 2 minutes, scrambling for the winning TD with 21 seconds left, showing the team's ability to execute under pressure.

Offensive struggles in first half

The Blue Raiders were held scoreless in the first half, trailing 13-0 at halftime. Vattiato completed 27 of 44 passes for 247 yards with a TD and an interception, but the offense lacked consistency until the fourth quarter.

Defensive improvement in second half

After allowing 13 first-half points, the defense tightened up, forcing Nevada to settle for a missed field goal and limiting the Wolf Pack to no points in the second half. This defensive stand gave the offense a chance to rally.

Turnover differential and key plays

Both teams had one interception, but Middle Tennessee's defense did not force additional turnovers. The Blue Raiders' ability to avoid turnovers in the final drive was crucial, while Nevada's missed field goals (41 and 56 yards) proved decisive.

Momentum from first win of season

This victory improved Middle Tennessee to 1-2, providing a much-needed confidence boost after two losses. The comeback win could energize the team for upcoming games, especially with Vattiato's leadership in critical moments.

What were the weather conditions for Middle Tennessee vs Nevada?

At kickoff, conditions at Mackay Stadium were Clear, 63°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Middle Tennessee travels 1,840 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 2 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Middle Tennessee won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Middle Tennessee covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 22.5 points.

How do Middle Tennessee and Nevada compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Nevada (-16.9) over Middle Tennessee (-20.5) by 3.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Nevada brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Middle Tennessee won and Middle Tennessee covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Clear

63°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity52%
Wind7 mph WSW
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for Middle Tennessee at Nevada: aerial view of Mackay Stadium, wind from the WSW at 7.2 mph, gusting to 11.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM PDT
Venue
Mackay Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
4,619 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure Middle TennesseeAway NevadaHome
This week1,840 miles0 miles
Last week1,048 milesHome game
Season total2,888 miles4,402 miles
Body clock16:0014:00
Rest7 days7 days