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Week 3 •
Yulman Stadium

Duke27 @FINAL 34Tulane

1-1 ACC Power rating: 6.8
2-0 American Power rating: 3.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TULN -1.5
PM Implied
TULN -0.9
Blue Chip model
DUKE -0.3
Edge
-1.8DUKE
See details
◂ favors DUKEfavors TULN ▸Market: TULN -1.5
‹ 3.6 DUKE
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TULN
no impact
TULN
no impact
TULN
1 DUKE1 TULN2 DUKE2 TULN3 DUKE3 TULNModel: DUKE -0.3

Betting information

Spread
TULN -1.5
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
DUKE 25.5 – 27.0 TULN
Prediction markets
TULN 54% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Tulane defeated Duke 34–27 in a one-score game. Tulane covered by 5.5; Game went Over by 8.5. The market closed at Tulane -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Duke -0.3, an edge of 1.8 points toward Duke. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Duke 3.6 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Duke vs Tulane?

Duke

Consecutive Losses and Non-Conference Struggles

Duke has lost consecutive games in September for the first time since 2020 and dropped back-to-back nonconference games for the first time since 2010, indicating a potential decline in early-season performance.

Improved Turnover Margin but Special Teams Issues

After committing five turnovers against Illinois, Duke cut that to one against Tulane, but special teams miscues (missed field goal, mishandled snap, blocked kick) cost them points and momentum.

Darian Mensah's Strong Performance Against Former Team

Mensah threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns, his third straight 300-yard game, showing consistency and resilience despite a hostile environment and pressure from Tulane's defense.

Late Rally Falls Short Due to Onside Kick Failures

Duke scored twice in the final three minutes to cut the lead to 34-27, but failed on two onside kicks, highlighting an inability to complete comebacks and secure possession in critical moments.

Upcoming ACC Opener Against N.C. State

Duke opens ACC play at home against N.C. State next Saturday, needing to address special teams and early-game execution to avoid a third straight loss and start conference play positively.

Tulane

Historic rushing performance by QB Retzlaff

Jake Retzlaff set a school record with four rushing touchdowns, adding 111 yards on the ground and 245 passing yards. His dual-threat ability was crucial in building an early 24-3 lead and sustaining drives.

Undefeated start and historical context

Tulane improved to 3-0 for only the third time in 50 years, matching seasons (1998, 2022) that ended with 12 wins and a conference title. This suggests strong potential for a successful campaign.

Key fourth-down conversion shifted momentum

Facing fourth-and-2 from their own 45 with a 24-16 lead, coach Sumrall opted to go for it. Retzlaff's 3-yard keeper extended the drive, leading to his fourth TD and a 34-16 advantage, effectively sealing the win.

Defense contained former QB Mensah without big plays

Tulane's defense forced Duke to drive the field, allowing 313 passing yards but no explosive touchdowns. They also blocked a field goal and limited Duke to one turnover, a key improvement from previous games.

Next week: Tough road test at No. 17 Ole Miss

Tulane faces a significant challenge against a ranked SEC opponent on the road. The team's ability to maintain offensive efficiency and defensive discipline will be critical against a high-powered Ole Miss offense.

What were the weather conditions for Duke vs Tulane?

At kickoff, conditions at Yulman Stadium were Clear, 81°F, heat index 86°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Duke travels 771 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Duke arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Tulane won by 7 in a one-score game.

Tulane covered the spread.

The total went Over by 8.5 points.

How do Duke and Tulane compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Duke (6.8) over Tulane (3.2) by 3.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Tulane faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Tulane brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Duke and Tulane?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Tulane won and Tulane covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 14, 2025 Game-time

Clear

81°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity80%
Wind6 mph SSW
Gusts11 mph
Heat index86°F
Wind map for Duke at Tulane: aerial view of Yulman Stadium, wind from the SSW at 6 mph, gusting to 10.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
Yulman Stadium
Capacity
30,000
Elevation
16 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

DukeAway TulaneHome
This week771 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game252 miles
Season total771 miles252 miles
Body clock20:0019:00
Rest8 days8 days

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