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Week 3 •
Davis Wade Stadium

Alcorn State0 @FINAL 63Mississippi State

0-0 SWAC Power rating: -38.0
2-0 SEC Power rating: 9.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MSST -42.5
PM Implied
MSST -25.4
Blue Chip model
MSST -48.5
Edge
+6.0MSST
See details
◂ favors ALCNfavors MSST ▸Market: MSST -42.5
47.2 › MSST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MSST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ALCN2 MSST4 ALCN4 MSST6 ALCN6 MSSTModel: MSST -48.5

Betting information

Spread
MSST -42.5
Total
56.5
Odds implied score
ALCN 7.0 – 49.5 MSST
Prediction markets
MSST 99% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Mississippi State defeated Alcorn State 63–0 in a dominant performance. Mississippi State covered by 20.5; Game went Over by 6.5. The market closed at Mississippi State -42.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Mississippi State -48.5 - a gap of 6.0 points toward Mississippi State, of which 5.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Alcorn State vs Mississippi State?

At kickoff, conditions at Davis Wade Stadium were Clear, 78°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Alcorn State travels 175 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Mississippi State won by 63 in a dominant performance.

Mississippi State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 6.5 points.

How do Alcorn State and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Mississippi State (9.2) over Alcorn State (-38.0) by 47.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Mississippi State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Alcorn State and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Mississippi State won and Mississippi State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Clear

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity58%
Wind5 mph E
Gusts11 mph
Wind map for Alcorn State at Mississippi State: aerial view of Davis Wade Stadium, wind from the E at 5.4 mph, gusting to 11.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
05:00 PM CDT
Venue
Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity
60,311
Elevation
381 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Alcorn StateAway Mississippi StateHome
This week175 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total175 miles300 miles
Body clock17:0017:00
Rest7 days7 days

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