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Week 3 •
Dix Stadium

Buffalo31 @FINAL 28Kent State

1-1 MAC Power rating: -11.2
1-1 MAC Power rating: -24.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BUF -23.5
PM Implied
BUF -16.9
Blue Chip model
BUF -10.5
Edge
+13.0KENT
See details
◂ favors BUFfavors KENT ▸Market: BUF -23.5
BUF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
KENT
no impact
no impact
no impact
KENT
5 BUF5 KENT10 BUF10 KENT15 BUF15 KENTModel: BUF -10.5

Betting information

Spread
BUF -23.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
BUF 36.0 – 12.5 KENT
Prediction markets
BUF 94% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Buffalo defeated Kent State 31–28 in a nail-biter. Kent State covered by 20.5; Game went Over by 10.5. The market closed at Buffalo -23.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Buffalo -10.5 - a gap of 13.0 points toward Kent State, of which 12.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Buffalo vs Kent State?

Kent State

Extended Losing Streaks Continue

Kent State lost its 24th straight game against an FBS opponent, 17th consecutive conference game, and 11th straight home game against MAC foes, indicating deep-seated struggles in competitive play.

Promising Debut for Freshman QB

Freshman Dru DeShields threw for 279 yards and two touchdowns, and rushed for 37 yards and another score in his first collegiate start, showing potential for offensive growth.

Late Lead Lost on Final Drive

Kent State took a 28-24 lead with 2:37 remaining after a 22-play, 93-yard drive that consumed over 12 minutes, but Buffalo responded with a game-winning touchdown drive, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities in clutch moments.

Offensive Efficiency in Long Drives

The Golden Flashes executed a 22-play, 93-yard drive that took over 12 minutes, demonstrating ability to sustain drives and control the clock, which could be a key strategy in future games.

Home Field Disadvantage

Kent State has lost 11 consecutive home games against MAC opponents, suggesting a lack of home-field advantage that could impact confidence and performance in upcoming home games.

What were the weather conditions for Buffalo vs Kent State?

At kickoff, conditions at Dix Stadium were Cloudy, 78°F with winds of 8 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Buffalo travels 183 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Buffalo won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Kent State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 10.5 points.

How do Buffalo and Kent State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Buffalo (-11.2) over Kent State (-24.4) by 13.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Kent State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Kent State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Buffalo and Kent State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Buffalo won and Kent State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity42%
Wind8 mph NW
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Buffalo at Kent State: aerial view of Dix Stadium, wind from the NW at 8.1 mph, gusting to 9.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Dix Stadium
Capacity
25,319
Elevation
1,063 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

BuffaloAway Kent StateHome
This week183 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game2,483 miles
Season total1,647 miles2,483 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days

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