UTSA defeated Incarnate Word 48–20 in a dominant performance. UTSA covered by 7.0; Game went Over by 5.5.
Adjust any factor to update your projected line
Positive adjustment = favours home team
This game was played indoors at Alamodome in a climate-controlled environment. Weather was not a factor.
~72°F
Incarnate Word fell behind 24-0 at halftime, managing only 90 yards of offense and committing three turnovers (two lost fumbles, one interception) that led to short UTSA touchdown drives. This slow start and inability to protect the ball were critical in the loss.
After replacing starting quarterback Richard Torres with EJ Colson in the second half, the offense showed life. Colson completed 17 of 24 passes for 213 yards and three touchdowns, all to Chedon James, who had eight catches for 134 yards and three scores. This suggests potential for a more effective passing attack moving forward.
The defense allowed UTSA running back Robert Henry Jr. to rush for 144 yards and two touchdowns, including a 74-yard run to open the second half. Henry has now rushed for over 100 yards in five straight games, indicating a vulnerability that opponents may exploit.
Entering the game ranked No. 8 in the FCS coaches' poll, the loss drops Incarnate Word to 1-2. The team will need to quickly regroup and address the early-game issues to avoid a losing streak and maintain confidence in a competitive FCS landscape.
Incarnate Word travels 4 miles to this game, a short road trip.
UTSA won by 28 in a dominant performance.
UTSA covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Over by 5.5 points.
Wind of 16.1 mph creates a moderate passing and kicking risk. Monitor this figure closer to kickoff.
Gusts reaching 21.7 mph add unpredictability to the passing game.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour UTSA (-0.7) over Incarnate Word (-17.6) by 16.9 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UTSA brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
UTSA won and UTSA covered the spread.
