Week 3 •
Bryant-Denny Stadium

Wisconsin14 @FINAL 38Alabama , Week 3, Sep 13, 2025

2-0 Big Ten Power rating: 3.0
1-1 SEC Power rating: 25.5

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ALA -17.5
PM Implied
ALA -15.1
Blue Chip model
ALA -26.5
Edge
+9.0ALA
See details
◂ favors WISfavors ALA ▸Market: ALA -17.5
22.5 › ALA
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5 WIS5 ALA10 WIS10 ALAModel: ALA -26.5

Betting information

Spread
ALA -17.5
Total
45.5
Odds implied score
WIS 14.0 – 31.5 ALA
Prediction markets
ALA 92% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Alabama defeated Wisconsin 38–14 to secure a comfortable win. Alabama covered by 6.5; Game went Over by 6.5. The market closed at Alabama -17.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Alabama -26.5 - a gap of 9.0 points toward Alabama, of which 7.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Wisconsin vs Alabama?

Wisconsin

Offensive struggles without starting QB

Backup QB Danny O'Neil completed 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards and a TD, but the offense managed only 209 total yards, highlighting the impact of Billy Edwards' injury.

Defensive vulnerabilities exposed

Alabama's offense scored 38 points and gained 382 passing yards, with Wisconsin's defense allowing four sacks and two interceptions, indicating issues in pass coverage and pass rush.

Special teams bright spot

Vinny Anthony II returned a kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown, providing a rare highlight and a potential weapon for future games.

Injury concerns and need for recovery

The Badgers are dealing with key injuries at quarterback and along the offensive line, making it critical to get healthy before Big Ten play begins.

Momentum and confidence issues

Wisconsin has lost consecutive games to Alabama by a combined 80-24, and must regroup quickly to avoid a losing streak as they face Maryland in their Big Ten opener.

Alabama

Quarterback Ty Simpson's Hot Streak

Simpson threw for 382 yards and four touchdowns, completing 24 of 29 passes (82.8%). He joined Mac Jones as the only Alabama QBs to complete 80%+ with three TDs in consecutive games, showing elite efficiency and command.

Ryan Williams Returns with a Bang

After missing last week with a concussion, Williams caught five passes for 165 yards and two touchdowns, including a 75-yard trick play to open the second half. His deep threat ability adds a dynamic element to the offense.

Defensive Improvement and Pass Rush

Alabama's defense held Wisconsin to 209 yards, recorded four sacks (up from one total in the first two games), and forced two interceptions. This suggests the pass rush is finding its stride after a slow start.

Offensive Explosion and Consistency

Alabama has scored on 17 of its last 20 possessions, including 15 touchdowns. The offense is clicking at a high level, with multiple receivers contributing (Germie Bernard, Isaiah Horton) and a balanced attack.

Bye Week and Key Injuries

Alabama has a bye week before facing No. 6 Georgia. Defensive end LT Overton left with an undisclosed injury, but running back Jam Miller and defensive lineman Tim Keenan are nearing returns, which could bolster the lineup.

What were the weather conditions for Wisconsin vs Alabama?

At kickoff, conditions at Bryant-Denny Stadium were Sunny, 90°F, heat index 93°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Wisconsin travels 688 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Alabama won by 24 to secure a comfortable win.

Alabama covered the spread.

The total went Over by 6.5 points.

How do Wisconsin and Alabama compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Alabama (25.5) over Wisconsin (3.0) by 22.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Alabama brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Alabama won and Alabama covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

90°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity41%
Wind3 mph ESE
Gusts3 mph
Heat index93°F
Wind map for Wisconsin at Alabama: aerial view of Bryant-Denny Stadium, wind from the ESE at 2.7 mph, gusting to 3.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Capacity
100,077
Elevation
253 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure WisconsinAway AlabamaHome
This week688 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total688 miles540 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days