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Week 3 •
M. M. Roberts Stadium

App State22 @FINAL 38Southern Miss

2-0 Sun Belt Power rating: -11.0
1-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -6.5

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
APP -3.0
PM Implied
APP -2.9
Blue Chip model
USM -7.2
Edge
+10.2USM
See details
◂ favors APPfavors USM ▸Market: APP -3.0
USM
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
USM
no impact
no impact
no impact
USM
5 APP5 USM10 APP10 USMModel: USM -7.2

Betting information

Spread
APP -3.0
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
APP 29.3 – 26.3 USM
Prediction markets
APP 62% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Southern Miss defeated App State 38–22 in a double-digit victory. Southern Miss covered by 19.0; Game went Over by 4.5. The market closed at App State -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Southern Miss -7.2 - a gap of 10.2 points toward Southern Miss, of which 9.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for App State vs Southern Miss?

At kickoff, conditions at M. M. Roberts Stadium were Partly cloudy, 78°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

App State travels 554 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

App State arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Southern Miss won by 16 in a double-digit victory.

Southern Miss covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 4.5 points.

How do App State and Southern Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Southern Miss (-6.5) over App State (-11.0) by 4.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Southern Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on App State and Southern Miss?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Southern Miss won and Southern Miss covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 13, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity85%
Wind5 mph SW
Gusts10 mph
Wind map for App State at Southern Miss: aerial view of M. M. Roberts Stadium, wind from the SW at 4.7 mph, gusting to 9.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 3
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CDT
Venue
M. M. Roberts Stadium
Capacity
36,000
Elevation
233 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

App StateAway Southern MissHome
This week554 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total719 miles0 miles
Body clock19:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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