14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 4 • September 20, 2025, 07:30 PM UTC
Troy @ Buffalo
1-2
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -7.2
21 FINAL 17
2-1
MAC
Power Rank: -11.2
Troy covered by 10.5 | Game went Under by 4.5

By · Last updated

Troy defeated Buffalo 21–17 in a closely contested finish.

Troy @ Buffalo Preview

General Information

Week: Week 4
Kick Off (at stadium): 03:30 PM EDT
Stadium: UB Stadium
Capacity: 25,013
Elevation: 600 ft
HFA Rating: 2.4
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread Buffalo -6.5
Total (O/U) 42.5
Expected Score TROY 18.0 - 24.5 BUF
Power Rank Implied Line Troy +4.0
Prediction Markets Buffalo 67% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Heavy snow

Heavy snow

24.8°F

Wind Chill: 13.1°F
Wind: 13.4 mph WSW
Gusts: 20.3 mph
Precipitation: 0.01"
Humidity: 95%
Rain Chance: 100%
Snow Chance: 100%

Travel & Rest

Troy (Away)

This Week: 866.6 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 2618.1 miles
Body Clock Time: 14:30
Rest Days: 7

Buffalo (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 366.0 miles
Season Total: 1829.8 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:30
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Buffalo -6.5
Total Points 42.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Troy -7.2
Buffalo -11.2
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 867 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: UB Stadium
Capacity 25,013
Elevation 600 ft
Weather: Heavy snow
Temperature 24.8°F
Wind Speed 13.4 mph
Your Line Buffalo -4.0
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Troy vs Buffalo?

Troy: Key Factors

Buffalo: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Troy travels 867 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Troy arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Troy won by 4 in a closely contested finish.

Troy covered the spread, covering by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at UB Stadium?

At 24.8°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Precipitation chance is 100%, pointing to a wet-field game. High precip probability increases fumble risk and typically compresses both team totals.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Troy and Buffalo compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Troy (-7.2) over Buffalo (-11.2) by 4.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Buffalo faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Buffalo brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Troy and Buffalo?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Troy won and Troy covered the spread.