Week 4
Canvas Stadium

UTSA17 @FINAL 16Colorado State , Week 4, Sep 21, 2025

1-2 American Power rating: -0.5
1-1 MW Power rating: -9.8

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UTSA -4.5
PM Implied
UTSA -4.0
Blue Chip model
UTSA -5.2
Edge
-0.7UTSA
See details
◂ favors UTSAfavors CSU ▸Market: UTSA -4.5
‹ 9.3 UTSA
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1 UTSA1 CSU2 UTSA2 CSUModel: UTSA -5.2

Betting information

Spread
UTSA -4.5
Total
58.5
Odds implied score
UTSA 31.5 – 27.0 CSU
Prediction markets
UTSA 65% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UTSA defeated Colorado State 17–16 in a nail-biter. Colorado State covered by 3.5; Game went Under by 25.5. The market closed at UTSA -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it UTSA -5.2. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for UTSA vs Colorado State?

Colorado State

Late Game Heroics Fall Short

Colorado State mounted a 13-play, 75-yard drive in the final 29 seconds, scoring a touchdown to cut the lead to one, but a failed 2-point conversion attempt and an unsuccessful onside kick sealed the 17-16 loss.

Quarterback Rotation Shows Promise

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi started and completed 14 of 25 passes for 176 yards, while Jackson Brousseau came in late and went 10-of-12 for 78 yards and a touchdown, indicating potential depth at the position.

Running Game Provides Spark

Lloyd Avant rushed for 96 yards on 10 carries, and Tahj Bullock added a 10-yard touchdown run, showing the Rams can move the ball on the ground effectively.

Defense Struggles Against Big Plays

UTSA's Robert Henry Jr. broke off a 76-yard touchdown run in the second quarter and a 74-yard touchdown catch in the fourth, highlighting Colorado State's vulnerability to explosive plays.

Penalty Proves Costly

After a successful PAT to tie the game, an offside penalty on UTSA prompted Colorado State to go for the 2-point conversion instead of kicking the extra point, which ultimately failed and cost them the game.

What were the weather conditions for UTSA vs Colorado State?

At kickoff, conditions at Canvas Stadium were Clear, 60°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UTSA travels 855 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

UTSA arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

UTSA won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Colorado State covered the spread.

The total went Under by 25.5 points.

How do UTSA and Colorado State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UTSA (-0.5) over Colorado State (-9.8) by 9.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Colorado State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Colorado State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

UTSA won and Colorado State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 21, 2025 Game-time

Clear

60°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity55%
Wind6 mph W
Gusts13 mph
Wind map for UTSA at Colorado State: aerial view of Canvas Stadium, wind from the W at 6 mph, gusting to 12.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM MDT
Venue
Canvas Stadium
Capacity
41,000
Elevation
5,010 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure UTSAAway Colorado StateHome
This week855 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total1,159 miles1,965 miles
Body clock20:3019:30
Rest8 days15 days