UTSA defeated Colorado State 17–16 in a nail-biter. Colorado State covered by 3.5; Game went Under by 25.5.
Adjust any factor to update your projected line
Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Canvas Stadium were Clear, 59.5°F, Feels Like 59.0°F with winds of 6.0 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
59.5°F
Colorado State mounted a 13-play, 75-yard drive in the final 29 seconds, scoring a touchdown to cut the lead to one, but a failed 2-point conversion attempt and an unsuccessful onside kick sealed the 17-16 loss.
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi started and completed 14 of 25 passes for 176 yards, while Jackson Brousseau came in late and went 10-of-12 for 78 yards and a touchdown, indicating potential depth at the position.
Lloyd Avant rushed for 96 yards on 10 carries, and Tahj Bullock added a 10-yard touchdown run, showing the Rams can move the ball on the ground effectively.
UTSA's Robert Henry Jr. broke off a 76-yard touchdown run in the second quarter and a 74-yard touchdown catch in the fourth, highlighting Colorado State's vulnerability to explosive plays.
After a successful PAT to tie the game, an offside penalty on UTSA prompted Colorado State to go for the 2-point conversion instead of kicking the extra point, which ultimately failed and cost them the game.
UTSA travels 855 miles to this game, a significant road trip.
UTSA arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
UTSA won by 1 in a nail-biter.
Colorado State covered the spread.
The total went Under by 25.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour UTSA (-0.5) over Colorado State (-9.8) by 9.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Colorado State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Colorado State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.0). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
UTSA won and Colorado State covered the spread.
