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Week 4 •
Falcon Stadium

Boise State49 @FINAL 37Air Force

1-1 MW Power rating: 6.2
1-1 MW Power rating: -10.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BOIS -10.5
PM Implied
BOIS -7.7
Blue Chip model
BOIS -14.3
Edge
-3.8BOIS
See details
◂ favors BOISfavors AF ▸Market: BOIS -10.5
‹ 16.4 BOIS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
AF
BOIS
no impact
AF
no impact
2 BOIS2 AF4 BOIS4 AFModel: BOIS -14.3

Betting information

Spread
BOIS -10.5
Total
51.5
Odds implied score
BOIS 31.0 – 20.5 AF
Prediction markets
BOIS 78% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Boise State defeated Air Force 49–37 in a double-digit victory. Boise State covered by 1.5; Game went Over by 34.5. The market closed at Boise State -10.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Boise State -14.3, an edge of 3.8 points toward Boise State.

What were the weather conditions for Boise State vs Air Force?

At kickoff, conditions at Falcon Stadium were Moderate rain at times, 49°F, wind chill 46°F with winds of 5 mph. There is a 100% chance of rain, though little accumulation is expected. Blue Chip has not been able to measure a reliable line effect from rain, so treat this as context rather than signal. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Boise State travels 670 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Boise State won by 12 in a double-digit victory.

Boise State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 34.5 points.

How do Boise State and Air Force compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Boise State (6.2) over Air Force (-10.2) by 16.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Air Force faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Air Force brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Boise State and Air Force?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Boise State won and Boise State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Moderate rain at times

49°F

Rain100%
Precip0.04"
Humidity79%
Wind5 mph NW
Gusts8 mph
Wind chill46°F
Wind map for Boise State at Air Force: aerial view of Falcon Stadium, wind from the NW at 5.1 mph, gusting to 8.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
05:00 PM MDT
Venue
Falcon Stadium
Capacity
39,441
Elevation
6,657 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Boise StateAway Air ForceHome
This week670 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week827 miles
Season total4,983 miles827 miles
Body clock17:0017:00
Rest14 days6 days

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