26
Final
23
38
Final
61
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Final
20
30
Final
24
34
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31
Final
34
34
Final
41
16
Final
35
19
Final
16
38
Final
35
14
Final
28
28
Final
31
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DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Miami defeated Florida 26–7 to secure a comfortable win. Miami covered by 10.5; Game went Under by 18.5. The market closed at Miami -8.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami -12.1 - a gap of 3.6 points toward Miami, of which 2.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Florida managed only 141 total yards, their lowest since 1999, and went 0-for-13 on third downs, the worst by any FBS team since 2022. QB D.J. Lagway completed just 12 of 23 passes for 61 yards, highlighting severe offensive dysfunction.
Florida's defense held Miami to 26 points and forced a key interception, keeping the game close after a third-quarter touchdown cut the lead to 13-7. However, the offense's inability to sustain drives left the defense on the field too long.
The Gators fell to 1-3, their worst start since 1986, putting coach Billy Napier's record at 20-22. The loss intensifies scrutiny on Napier's job security as the team faces a tough upcoming schedule.
Florida will need to drastically improve offensive execution and third-down efficiency to compete against a strong Texas team. The defense must continue to play well, but the offense must find consistency to avoid another lopsided loss.
Miami's defense held Florida to just 141 total yards and forced an 0-for-13 performance on third downs, the worst by any FBS team since 2022. This defensive dominance was key to the 26-7 victory and suggests the Hurricanes can rely on their defense to control games.
Mark Fletcher Jr. rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown, while Marty Brown added two short touchdown runs. The ground game accounted for the bulk of Miami's 344 total yards, providing a balanced attack that can wear down opponents.
Miami overcame a controversial reversal of a potential touchdown run by Brown in the third quarter, which would have made it 19-0. Instead, Florida scored to cut the lead to 13-7, but the Hurricanes responded with a fourth-down stop and sealed the win with late touchdowns, showing mental toughness.
Quarterback Carson Beck completed 17 of 30 passes for 160 yards and an interception, improving to 3-0 all-time against Florida. While not spectacular, his management of the game was sufficient, though the interception highlights a need for better decision-making against tougher opponents.
Miami improved to 10-0 at home since the start of last season, underscoring their strength at Hard Rock Stadium. This bodes well for future home games, though their next matchup is on the road against Florida State.
At kickoff, conditions at Hard Rock Stadium were Clear, 80°F with winds of 11 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Clear
80°F

| Measure | FloridaAway | MiamiHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 285 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | 1,064 miles | Home game |
| Season total | 1,349 miles | 0 miles |
| Body clock | 19:30 | 19:30 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |