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Week 4 •
Waldo Stadium

Toledo13 @FINAL 14Western Michigan

2-1 MAC Power rating: -2.1
0-3 MAC Power rating: -8.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TOL -13.5
PM Implied
TOL -9.9
Blue Chip model
TOL -4.0
Edge
+9.5WMU
See details
◂ favors TOLfavors WMU ▸Market: TOL -13.5
TOL
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
WMU
no impact
no impact
no impact
WMU
5 TOL5 WMU10 TOL10 WMUModel: TOL -4.0

Betting information

Spread
TOL -13.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
TOL 31.0 – 17.5 WMU
Prediction markets
TOL 83% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Western Michigan defeated Toledo 14–13 in a nail-biter. Western Michigan covered by 14.5; Game went Under by 21.5. The market closed at Toledo -13.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Toledo -4.0 - a gap of 9.5 points toward Western Michigan, of which 8.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Toledo 6.7 points stronger on a neutral field.

What are the key factors for Toledo vs Western Michigan?

Western Michigan

Resilient comeback win

Western Michigan overcame a 13-0 deficit in the fourth quarter, scoring two touchdowns in the final minute of the third and fourth quarters, including a successful two-point conversion to win 14-13. This shows the team's ability to execute under pressure and finish games.

Offensive struggles and key plays

The offense managed only 201 passing yards and two rushing touchdowns, with Broc Lowry completing 16 of 33 passes. However, a crucial 43-yard pass to Tailique Williams on fourth-and-10 set up the winning score, highlighting the importance of big plays in critical moments.

Defensive improvement and forced turnovers

After allowing 153 rushing yards to Toledo's Chip Trayanum, the defense forced a three-and-out late in the fourth quarter to give the offense a chance. This defensive stand was pivotal in securing the win, indicating potential for tighter defensive play moving forward.

Special teams miscue

A fumbled punt in the second quarter led to Toledo's first points, a field goal. This mistake could be a concern for future games, as special teams errors can shift momentum and give opponents easy scoring opportunities.

First win of the season

After losing to three undefeated teams (Michigan State, North Texas, Illinois), this victory provides a confidence boost and momentum heading into the next game. The team showed resilience and ability to win close games, which is valuable for betting and predictions.

What were the weather conditions for Toledo vs Western Michigan?

At kickoff, conditions at Waldo Stadium were Thundery outbreaks possible, 78°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Toledo travels 111 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Western Michigan won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Western Michigan covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 21.5 points.

How do Toledo and Western Michigan compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Toledo (-2.1) over Western Michigan (-8.8) by 6.7 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Western Michigan faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Western Michigan brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Toledo and Western Michigan?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Western Michigan won and Western Michigan covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Thundery outbreaks possible

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity56%
Wind10 mph SSW
Gusts17 mph
Wind map for Toledo at Western Michigan: aerial view of Waldo Stadium, wind from the SSW at 9.6 mph, gusting to 17 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Waldo Stadium
Capacity
36,361
Elevation
807 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

ToledoAway Western MichiganHome
This week111 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game408 miles
Season total622 miles537 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days7 days

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