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Week 4 •
Scott Stadium

Stanford20 @FINAL 48Virginia

1-2 ACC Power rating: -3.6
2-1 ACC Power rating: 11.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UVA -16.5
PM Implied
UVA -11.9
Blue Chip model
UVA -17.8
Edge
+1.3UVA
See details
◂ favors STANfavors UVA ▸Market: UVA -16.5
15.4 › UVA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UVA
no impact
UVA
no impact
no impact
1 STAN1 UVA2 STAN2 UVAModel: UVA -17.8

Betting information

Spread
UVA -16.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
STAN 16.0 – 32.5 UVA
Prediction markets
UVA 88% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Virginia defeated Stanford 48–20 in a dominant performance. Virginia covered by 11.5; Game went Over by 19.5. The market closed at Virginia -16.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Virginia -17.8, an edge of 1.3 points toward Virginia.

What are the key factors for Stanford vs Virginia?

Stanford

Defensive Struggles Continue

Stanford's defense allowed 590 total yards and 48 points to Virginia, including three first-quarter touchdown passes. The unit failed to contain the Cavaliers' offense, which had similar success against FCS William & Mary the previous week.

Running Game Bottled Up

Star running back Micah Ford, who rushed for a career-high 157 yards the week before, was held to just 44 yards on 13 carries (3.4 yards per carry) by Virginia's defense. This limited Stanford's ability to control the clock and sustain drives.

Big Plays Through the Air

Despite the loss, Stanford showed explosive passing ability with Bryce Farrell recording a 60-yard reception in the first half and a 68-yard touchdown catch in the second. This could be a key element to build on against San Jose State.

Upcoming Non-Conference Opportunity

Stanford hosts San Jose State next Saturday in a non-conference game. After a tough ACC loss, this matchup offers a chance to regroup and address defensive issues before facing Miami later in the month.

Virginia

Explosive Offense Continues

Virginia amassed 590 total yards, following a record-setting 700-yard performance the previous week, proving the offense is not just a product of weak opponents. Chandler Morris threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns, and the team averaged 5.7 yards per carry.

Defensive Improvement with Key Return

Linebacker Kam Robinson returned from injury and led the team with seven tackles, helping to hold Stanford's star running back Micah Ford to just 44 yards on 13 carries after he had 157 yards the week before.

Fast Start and Dominant First Half

Wide receiver Trell Harris caught three touchdown passes in the first quarter alone, allowing Virginia to build an early lead and control the game from the outset.

Next Game: Hosting Florida State

Virginia will face Florida State at home in what is described as their most anticipated early-season matchup, providing a significant test for their high-powered offense and improving defense.

What were the weather conditions for Stanford vs Virginia?

At kickoff, conditions at Scott Stadium were Clear, 66°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Stanford travels 2,369 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

Virginia won by 28 in a dominant performance.

Virginia covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 19.5 points.

How do Stanford and Virginia compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Virginia (11.8) over Stanford (-3.6) by 15.4 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Virginia brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.7). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Stanford and Virginia?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Virginia won and Virginia covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Clear

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity62%
Wind4 mph NNE
Gusts8 mph
Wind map for Stanford at Virginia: aerial view of Scott Stadium, wind from the NNE at 3.8 mph, gusting to 8.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EDT
Venue
Scott Stadium
Capacity
61,500
Elevation
545 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

StanfordAway VirginiaHome
This week2,369 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total8,369 miles308 miles
Body clock16:3019:30
Rest6 days7 days

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