Week 4
Neyland Stadium

UAB24 @FINAL 56Tennessee , Week 4, Sep 20, 2025

2-1 American Power rating: -14.6
2-1 SEC Power rating: 17.9

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TENN -39.5
PM Implied
TENN -22.6
Blue Chip model
TENN -35.6
Edge
-3.9UAB
See details
◂ favors UABfavors TENN ▸Market: TENN -39.5
32.5 › TENN
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TENN
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TENN
2 UAB2 TENN4 UAB4 TENNModel: TENN -35.6

Betting information

Spread
TENN -39.5
Total
69.5
Odds implied score
UAB 15.0 – 54.5 TENN
Prediction markets
TENN 97% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Tennessee defeated UAB 56–24 in a dominant performance. UAB covered by 7.5; Game went Over by 10.5. The market closed at Tennessee -39.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Tennessee -35.6 - a gap of 3.9 points toward UAB, of which 2.9 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for UAB vs Tennessee?

UAB

Offensive Bright Spot Despite Blowout

UAB scored 24 points against a top-15 Tennessee defense, showing offensive resilience. QB Jalen Kitna threw for 364 yards and 2 touchdowns, indicating the passing game can produce against elite competition.

Defensive Struggles Against Powerhouse

The Blazers allowed 56 points and 235 rushing yards, with Tennessee leading 42-7 at halftime. This highlights significant defensive vulnerabilities, especially against a strong run game and efficient passing attack.

Confidence from Facing Top Competition

Coach Trent Dilfer noted that Tennessee's systems and discipline overwhelmed UAB early, but the team competed well in the second half. This experience may boost confidence for future games, as they likely won't face a team as strong as Tennessee.

Bye Week Before Army

UAB has an off week before hosting Army on Oct. 4. This extra time allows for rest, injury recovery, and game-planning adjustments, particularly to address defensive issues exposed by Tennessee.

Tennessee

Offensive bounce-back

After a loss to Georgia, Tennessee's offense rebounded with 56 points, 218 passing yards and 3 TDs from QB Joey Aguilar, plus 235 rushing yards and 4 TDs, showing improved balance and execution.

Run game resurgence

The Vols' run game, which struggled last week, accounted for 235 yards and 4 touchdowns, reinforcing its importance to the team's identity and providing a key weapon for upcoming games.

Secondary still a concern

Despite the win, Tennessee's secondary allowed 364 passing yards and 2 TDs from UAB's Jalen Kitna, highlighting ongoing issues with injuries and young player development that could be exploited by Mississippi State.

Early dominance sets tone

Tennessee built a 42-7 halftime lead, allowing starters to rest in the second half, which preserves energy and reduces injury risk ahead of next week's road game at Mississippi State.

Confidence and growth

Coach Heupel noted the program's growth and control over the season's direction, while Aguilar emphasized learning to play fast, suggesting the offense is still improving and gaining confidence.

What were the weather conditions for UAB vs Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Neyland Stadium were Sunny, 82°F, heat index 85°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UAB travels 234 miles to this game, a short road trip.

UAB arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Tennessee won by 32 in a dominant performance.

UAB covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 10.5 points.

How do UAB and Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Tennessee (17.9) over UAB (-14.6) by 32.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Tennessee won and UAB covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity53%
Wind3 mph SSE
Gusts3 mph
Heat index85°F
Wind map for UAB at Tennessee: aerial view of Neyland Stadium, wind from the SSE at 2.5 mph, gusting to 2.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
12:45 PM EDT
Venue
Neyland Stadium
Capacity
101,915
Elevation
899 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Measure UABAway TennesseeHome
This week234 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total1,608 miles308 miles
Body clock11:4512:45
Rest6 days7 days