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Week 4 •
Bobcat Stadium (TX)

Nicholls3 @FINAL 35Texas State

0-0 Southland Power rating: -28.4
2-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -4.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TXST -32.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
TXST -26.0
Edge
-6.5NICH
See details
◂ favors NICHfavors TXST ▸Market: TXST -32.5
23.6 › TXST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TXST
NICH
no impact
no impact
TXST
2 NICH2 TXST4 NICH4 TXST6 NICH6 TXSTModel: TXST -26.0

Betting information

Spread
TXST -32.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
NICH 12.5 – 45.0 TXST

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Texas State defeated Nicholls 35–3 in a dominant performance. Nicholls covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 19.5. The market closed at Texas State -32.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas State -26.0 - a gap of 6.5 points toward Nicholls, of which 5.2 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Nicholls vs Texas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Bobcat Stadium (TX) were Cloudy, 79°F with winds of 13 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Nicholls travels 428 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Texas State won by 32 in a dominant performance.

Nicholls covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 19.5 points.

How do Nicholls and Texas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas State (-4.8) over Nicholls (-28.4) by 23.6 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Texas State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Nicholls and Texas State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Texas State won and Nicholls covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 21, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

79°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity67%
Wind13 mph S
Gusts20 mph
Wind map for Nicholls at Texas State: aerial view of Bobcat Stadium (TX), wind from the S at 12.5 mph, gusting to 19.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
Bobcat Stadium (TX)
Capacity
27,149
Elevation
600 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

NichollsAway Texas StateHome
This week428 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week1,720 miles
Season total1,068 miles1,813 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest15 days7 days

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