26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 @ @
Week 4 •
Yager Stadium

UNLV41 @FINAL 38Miami (OH)

3-0 MW Power rating: -5.6
0-2 MAC Power rating: -7.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UNLV -2.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
M-OH -1.8
Edge
+4.3M-OH
See details
◂ favors UNLVfavors M-OH ▸Market: UNLV -2.5
UNLV
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
M-OH
no impact
M-OH
no impact
M-OH
2 UNLV2 M-OH4 UNLV4 M-OHModel: M-OH -1.8

Betting information

Spread
UNLV -2.5
Total
49.5
Odds implied score
UNLV 26.0 – 23.5 M-OH

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UNLV defeated Miami (OH) 41–38 in a nail-biter. UNLV covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 29.5. The market closed at UNLV -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Miami (OH) -1.8 - a gap of 4.3 points toward Miami (OH), of which 2.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for UNLV vs Miami (OH)?

Miami (OH)

Second-half collapse after strong start

Miami (OH) led 24-10 at halftime but allowed UNLV to tie the game early in the third quarter, then lost momentum after a 100-yard kickoff return and a pick-six gave them a 38-24 lead, only to see UNLV rally back with a 17-play drive and a late field goal.

Quarterback injury and turnover issues

Starting QB Dequan Finn left the game after throwing a pick-six early in the second quarter, forcing backup Henry Hesson to play. The team committed two interceptions, including a critical one that led to a UNLV touchdown, and a fumble in the red zone late in the fourth quarter that cost them a chance to win.

Offensive inconsistency and limited third-quarter snaps

Miami (OH) had only three offensive snaps in the third quarter, which disrupted their rhythm. Despite a strong first half, they struggled to sustain drives in the second half, relying on special teams and defensive scores to stay ahead.

Special teams and defensive highlights

Keith Reynolds returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown, and Corban Hondru had a 47-yard pick-six. However, a dropped snap on a potential game-tying 58-yard field goal attempt and a failed desperation heave sealed the loss.

Next game outlook: Need to address second-half stamina and QB depth

Miami (OH) must improve their second-half performance and develop a reliable backup QB plan if Finn is unavailable. They also need to protect the ball better and avoid costly turnovers in critical moments to compete in future games.

What were the weather conditions for UNLV vs Miami (OH)?

At kickoff, conditions at Yager Stadium were Overcast, 82°F with winds of 7 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UNLV travels 1,675 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

UNLV won by 3 in a nail-biter.

UNLV covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 29.5 points.

How do UNLV and Miami (OH) compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UNLV (-5.6) over Miami (OH) (-7.2) by 1.6 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Miami (OH) faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Miami (OH) brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on UNLV and Miami (OH)?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UNLV won and UNLV covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity46%
Wind7 mph SSE
Gusts8 mph
Wind map for UNLV at Miami (OH): aerial view of Yager Stadium, wind from the SSE at 6.9 mph, gusting to 8.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM EDT
Venue
Yager Stadium
Capacity
30,087
Elevation
797 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

UNLVAway Miami (OH)Home
This week1,675 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total4,134 miles1,788 miles
Body clock09:0012:00
Rest13 days14 days

Other games this week