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Week 4 •
McLane Stadium

Arizona State27 @FINAL 24Baylor

2-1 Big 12 Power rating: 10.4
2-1 Big 12 Power rating: 9.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BAY -3.0
PM Implied
BAY -1.4
Blue Chip model
BAY -1.5
Edge
-1.5ASU
See details
◂ favors ASUfavors BAY ▸Market: BAY -3.0
ASU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
BAY
no impact
BAY
no impact
BAY
1 ASU1 BAY2 ASU2 BAYModel: BAY -1.5

Betting information

Spread
BAY -3.0
Total
60.5
Odds implied score
ASU 28.8 – 31.8 BAY
Prediction markets
BAY 56% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Arizona State defeated Baylor 27–24 in a nail-biter. Arizona State covered by 6.0; Game went Under by 9.5. The market closed at Baylor -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Baylor -1.5, an edge of 1.5 points toward Arizona State.

What are the key factors for Arizona State vs Baylor?

Arizona State

Clutch Kicking Performance

Jesus Gomez made four field goals, including the game-winner as time expired, and is 9-of-10 on the season. His calm demeanor under pressure is a key asset for close games.

Offensive Struggles in Red Zone

Arizona State scored only two touchdowns on six red zone trips, settling for field goals. This inefficiency could be a concern against tougher defenses like TCU.

Late-Game Resilience

The Sun Devils scored on four of their final five drives, showing ability to execute under pressure. This momentum could carry into the next game.

Sam Leavitt's Dual-Threat Ability

Leavitt threw for 221 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for a score. His versatility adds a dynamic element to the offense that TCU must account for.

Defensive Vulnerability

Arizona State allowed Baylor to tie the game late and gave up 251 passing yards and three touchdowns. The defense needs to tighten up against a TCU team that just scored 35 points.

What were the weather conditions for Arizona State vs Baylor?

At kickoff, conditions at McLane Stadium were Clear, 81°F, heat index 82°F with winds of 19 mph. Wind of 19 mph is enough to matter to the total: the market has historically taken about 1.7 points off the number in this band. It is worth re-checking closer to kickoff. Gusts reaching 31 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arizona State travels 874 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Arizona State arrives with a 2-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Arizona State won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Arizona State covered the spread.

The total went Under by 9.5 points.

How do Arizona State and Baylor compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arizona State (10.4) over Baylor (9.2) by 1.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Baylor faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Baylor brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arizona State and Baylor?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Arizona State won and Arizona State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Clear

81°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity65%
Wind19 mph SSE
Gusts31 mph
Heat index82°F
Wind map for Arizona State at Baylor: aerial view of McLane Stadium, wind from the SSE at 18.8 mph, gusting to 30.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
McLane Stadium
Capacity
45,140
Elevation
404 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Arizona StateAway BaylorHome
This week874 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total3,542 miles181 miles
Body clock16:3018:30
Rest6 days7 days

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