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Week 4 •
Amon G. Carter Stadium

SMU24 @FINAL 35TCU

2-1 ACC Power rating: 10.1
2-0 Big 12 Power rating: 11.3

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TCU -6.5
PM Implied
TCU -5.1
Blue Chip model
TCU -5.0
Edge
-1.5SMU
See details
◂ favors SMUfavors TCU ▸Market: TCU -6.5
TCU
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TCU
no impact
no impact
no impact
TCU
1 SMU1 TCU2 SMU2 TCU3 SMU3 TCUModel: TCU -5.0

Betting information

Spread
TCU -6.5
Total
63.5
Odds implied score
SMU 28.5 – 35.0 TCU
Prediction markets
TCU 70% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

TCU defeated SMU 35–24 in a double-digit victory. TCU covered by 4.5; Game went Under by 4.5. The market closed at TCU -6.5 and the Blue Chip model made it TCU -5.0, an edge of 1.5 points toward SMU.

What are the key factors for SMU vs TCU?

SMU

Fourth-quarter collapse continues trend

SMU led 24-21 in the fourth quarter but allowed TCU to score 14 unanswered points, marking the second time this season they've lost when leading in the fourth quarter. This raises concerns about their ability to close out games.

Kevin Jennings shows promise but turnovers hurt

Jennings threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns, but his two interceptions, including a critical one in the end zone late in the first half, were costly. His performance suggests potential but inconsistency.

Defense struggles against big plays

TCU's Eric McAlister had 254 receiving yards and three touchdowns, including a 70-yard catch-and-run. SMU's secondary was exposed, which could be a vulnerability in ACC play.

Bye week before ACC opener provides opportunity

SMU has an open date before hosting Syracuse on Oct. 4. This extra time allows them to address finishing issues and defensive lapses, but they must rebound quickly to stay competitive in their new conference.

TCU

Eric McAlister's Explosive Performance

McAlister had 8 catches for 254 yards and 3 TDs, including a 70-yard catch-and-run and a 44-yard score, showcasing his big-play ability and after-catch skills.

Josh Hoover's Efficient Passing

Hoover threw for 379 yards and 5 TDs (22-of-40), demonstrating strong arm and decision-making, especially under pressure on key third downs.

Offensive Firepower and Resilience

TCU outgained SMU 517-384 yards, with key plays like Joseph Manjack IV's 4-yard TD catch breaking multiple tackles, showing the offense's ability to overcome deficits and finish drives.

Defensive Takeaways and Clutch Plays

The defense forced two interceptions from SMU's Kevin Jennings, helping swing momentum and secure the win after SMU took a brief lead in the fourth quarter.

Next Game: Friday Night at Arizona State

TCU travels to Arizona State on Friday night, needing to maintain offensive explosiveness and improve defensive consistency against a Sun Devils team that will test their secondary.

What were the weather conditions for SMU vs TCU?

At kickoff, conditions at Amon G. Carter Stadium were Thundery outbreaks possible, 92°F, heat index 95°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

SMU travels 35 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

TCU won by 11 in a double-digit victory.

TCU covered the spread.

The total went Under by 4.5 points.

How do SMU and TCU compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor TCU (11.3) over SMU (10.1) by 1.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. TCU brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on SMU and TCU?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

TCU won and TCU covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Thundery outbreaks possible

92°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity38%
Wind10 mph SSE
Gusts12 mph
Heat index95°F
Wind map for SMU at TCU: aerial view of Amon G. Carter Stadium, wind from the SSE at 10.1 mph, gusting to 11.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Amon G. Carter Stadium
Capacity
47,000
Elevation
646 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

SMUAway TCUHome
This week35 miles0 miles
Last week720 milesHome game
Season total756 miles2,138 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days6 days

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