Week 4
Autzen Stadium

Oregon State7 @FINAL 41Oregon , Week 4, Sep 20, 2025

0-3 Pac-12 Power rating: -8.5
3-0 Big Ten Power rating: 24.8

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ORE -33.5
PM Implied
ORE -22.7
Blue Chip model
ORE -35.3
Edge
+1.8ORE
See details
◂ favors ORSTfavors ORE ▸Market: ORE -33.5
33.3 › ORE
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ORE
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 ORST1 ORE2 ORST2 OREModel: ORE -35.3

Betting information

Spread
ORE -33.5
Total
58.5
Odds implied score
ORST 12.5 – 46.0 ORE
Prediction markets
ORE 99% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Oregon defeated Oregon State 41–7 in a dominant performance. Oregon covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 10.5. The market closed at Oregon -33.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Oregon -35.3, an edge of 1.8 points toward Oregon.

What are the key factors for Oregon State vs Oregon?

Oregon State

Offensive Struggles Continue

Oregon State managed only 7 points and 38 rushing yards from Anthony Hankerson, highlighting a lack of offensive firepower against a top-tier defense.

Resilient First Half, Collapse in Second

The Beavers tied the game 7-7 late in the first quarter but were outscored 34-0 in the second half, showing an inability to sustain performance for four quarters.

Winless Start and Tough Schedule Ahead

At 0-4, Oregon State faces an uphill battle. Next up is Houston on Friday night, a winnable game but requiring significant improvement on both sides of the ball.

Defensive Lapses Against Big Plays

Oregon's Dante Moore threw for 305 yards and 4 TDs, including a 49-yard strike, exposing Oregon State's secondary to explosive plays.

What were the weather conditions for Oregon State vs Oregon?

At kickoff, conditions at Autzen Stadium were Overcast, 66°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Oregon State travels 36 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Oregon won by 34 in a dominant performance.

Oregon covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 10.5 points.

How do Oregon State and Oregon compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Oregon (24.8) over Oregon State (-8.5) by 33.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Oregon brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.9). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Oregon won and Oregon covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity56%
Wind6 mph W
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for Oregon State at Oregon: aerial view of Autzen Stadium, wind from the W at 5.6 mph, gusting to 11.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
12:00 PM PDT
Venue
Autzen Stadium
Capacity
54,000
Elevation
443 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Oregon StateAway OregonHome
This week36 miles0 miles
Last week2,742 miles3,567 miles
Season total2,778 miles3,567 miles
Body clock12:0012:00
Rest7 days7 days