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Week 4 •
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex

Fresno State23 @FINAL 21Hawai'i

3-1 MW Power rating: -5.3
3-1 MW Power rating: -8.7

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
FRES -2.5
PM Implied
FRES -1.8
Blue Chip model
HAW -1.5
Edge
+4.0HAW
See details
◂ favors FRESfavors HAW ▸Market: FRES -2.5
FRES
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
HAW
no impact
HAW
no impact
HAW
2 FRES2 HAW4 FRES4 HAWModel: HAW -1.5

Betting information

Spread
FRES -2.5
Total
47.5
Odds implied score
FRES 25.0 – 22.5 HAW
Prediction markets
FRES 58% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Fresno State defeated Hawai'i 23–21 in a nail-biter. Hawai'i covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 3.5. The market closed at Fresno State -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Hawai'i -1.5 - a gap of 4.0 points toward Hawai'i, of which 2.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Fresno State vs Hawai'i?

At kickoff, conditions at Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex were Patchy rain possible, 77°F with winds of 14 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Fresno State travels 2,517 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

That is a westward shift of 3 time zones, the one travel pattern Blue Chip has measured as carrying a consistent price: about 0.9 points, with the distance burden already inside it.

Fresno State won by 2 in a nail-biter.

Hawai'i covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 3.5 points.

How do Fresno State and Hawai'i compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Fresno State (-5.3) over Hawai'i (-8.7) by 3.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Hawai'i faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Hawai'i brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Fresno State and Hawai'i?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Fresno State won and Hawai'i covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 21, 2025 Game-time

Patchy rain possible

77°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity80%
Wind14 mph ENE
Gusts18 mph
Wind map for Fresno State at Hawai'i: aerial view of Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, wind from the ENE at 13.9 mph, gusting to 18.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
05:59 PM HST
Venue
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Capacity
16,909
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Fresno StateAway Hawai'iHome
This week2,517 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total6,336 miles5,937 miles
Body clock20:5917:59
Rest7 days7 days

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