DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
UConn defeated Ball State 31–25 in a closely contested finish. Ball State covered by 15.0; Game went Over by 2.5. The market closed at UConn -21.0 and the Blue Chip model made it UConn -17.5 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Ball State, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Ball State pulled within seven points with a field goal late in the third quarter, but UConn responded with a 32-yard rushing touchdown. The Cardinals scored a touchdown with nine seconds remaining, but it was too little, too late, resulting in a 31-25 loss.
After Ball State cut the deficit to seven, quarterback Kiael Kelly threw an interception to Lee Molette III on the next drive, which effectively sealed the game for UConn. This turnover was a critical momentum shift that prevented the Cardinals from tying or taking the lead.
Kiael Kelly completed 17 of 24 passes for 209 yards, showing efficiency and the ability to move the ball through the air. This performance suggests the passing game could be a strength moving forward if the team can avoid turnovers.
Ball State allowed UConn's Cam Edwards to rush for 194 yards and two touchdowns, including a 67-yard score late in the game. The inability to contain the run was a major factor in the loss and will need to be addressed in future games.
With the loss, Ball State falls to 1-3 on the season. The team has shown resilience by competing closely in games, but must improve in key areas like run defense and turnover margin to turn close losses into wins.
At kickoff, conditions at Pratt & Whitney Stadium were Clear, 65°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Clear
65°F
| Measure | Ball StateAway | UConnHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 677 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | 438 miles |
| Season total | 1,888 miles | 839 miles |
| Body clock | 15:30 | 15:30 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
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