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Week 4 •
Plaster Sports Complex

UT Martin10 @FINAL 42Missouri State

0-0 OVC-Big South Power rating: -27.6
1-2 CUSA Power rating: -14.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MOST -14.5
PM Implied
MOST -10.5
Blue Chip model
MOST -15.3
Edge
+0.8MOST
See details
◂ favors UTMfavors MOST ▸Market: MOST -14.5
13.0 › MOST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MOST
no impact
no impact
no impact
UTM
1 UTM1 MOST2 UTM2 MOSTModel: MOST -15.3

Betting information

Spread
MOST -14.5
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
UTM 20.5 – 35.0 MOST
Prediction markets
MOST 86% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Missouri State defeated UT Martin 42–10 in a dominant performance. Missouri State covered by 17.5; Game went Under by 3.5. The market closed at Missouri State -14.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Missouri State -15.3. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for UT Martin vs Missouri State?

At kickoff, conditions at Plaster Sports Complex were Clear, 71°F with winds of 11 mph. Gusts reaching 22 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UT Martin travels 252 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Missouri State won by 32 in a dominant performance.

Missouri State covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 3.5 points.

How do UT Martin and Missouri State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Missouri State (-14.6) over UT Martin (-27.6) by 13.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Missouri State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on UT Martin and Missouri State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Missouri State won and Missouri State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Clear

71°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity89%
Wind11 mph ESE
Gusts22 mph
Wind map for UT Martin at Missouri State: aerial view of Plaster Sports Complex, wind from the ESE at 11 mph, gusting to 21.9 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CDT
Venue
Plaster Sports Complex
Capacity
17,500
Elevation
1,339 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

UT MartinAway Missouri StateHome
This week252 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total3,286 miles4,041 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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