@ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @
Week 4 •
AmFirst Stadium

Murray State10 @FINAL 45Jacksonville State

0-0 MVFC Power rating: -32.0
1-2 CUSA Power rating: -9.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
JXST -35.5
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
JXST -25.5
Edge
-10.0MUR
See details
◂ favors MURfavors JXST ▸Market: JXST -35.5
23.0 › JXST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
JXST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 MUR5 JXST10 MUR10 JXSTModel: JXST -25.5

Betting information

Spread
JXST -35.5
Total
60.5
Odds implied score
MUR 12.5 – 48.0 JXST

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Jacksonville State defeated Murray State 45–10 in a dominant performance. Murray State covered by 0.5; Game went Under by 5.5. The market closed at Jacksonville State -35.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Jacksonville State -25.5 - a gap of 10.0 points toward Murray State, of which 9.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Murray State vs Jacksonville State?

At kickoff, conditions at AmFirst Stadium were Clear, 74°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Murray State travels 241 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Jacksonville State won by 35 in a dominant performance.

Murray State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 5.5 points.

How do Murray State and Jacksonville State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Jacksonville State (-9.0) over Murray State (-32.0) by 23.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Jacksonville State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Murray State and Jacksonville State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Jacksonville State won and Murray State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Clear

74°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity64%
Wind5 mph ESE
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Murray State at Jacksonville State: aerial view of AmFirst Stadium, wind from the ESE at 4.5 mph, gusting to 9.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CDT
Venue
AmFirst Stadium
Capacity
22,500
Elevation
640 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Murray StateAway Jacksonville StateHome
This week241 miles0 miles
Last week597 miles501 miles
Season total838 miles1,400 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

Other games this week