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Week 4 •
FBC Mortgage Stadium

North Carolina9 @FINAL 34UCF

2-1 ACC Power rating: -2.0
2-0 Big 12 Power rating: 5.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UCF -7.0
PM Implied
UCF -5.1
Blue Chip model
UCF -11.2
Edge
+4.2UCF
See details
◂ favors UNCfavors UCF ▸Market: UCF -7.0
7.0 › UCF
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UCF
UCF
no impact
no impact
UCF
2 UNC2 UCF4 UNC4 UCFModel: UCF -11.2

Betting information

Spread
UCF -7.0
Total
46.5
Odds implied score
UNC 19.8 – 26.8 UCF
Prediction markets
UCF 70% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UCF defeated North Carolina 34–9 to secure a comfortable win. UCF covered by 18.0; Game went Under by 3.5. The market closed at UCF -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it UCF -11.2 - a gap of 4.2 points toward UCF, of which 3.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for North Carolina vs UCF?

At kickoff, conditions at FBC Mortgage Stadium were Partly cloudy, 82°F, heat index 87°F with winds of 10 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

North Carolina travels 518 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

UCF won by 25 to secure a comfortable win.

UCF covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 3.5 points.

How do North Carolina and UCF compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor UCF (5.0) over North Carolina (-2.0) by 7.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. UCF brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on North Carolina and UCF?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UCF won and UCF covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

82°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity72%
Wind10 mph NE
Gusts15 mph
Heat index87°F
Wind map for North Carolina at UCF: aerial view of FBC Mortgage Stadium, wind from the NE at 10.1 mph, gusting to 14.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Capacity
44,206
Elevation
75 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

North CarolinaAway UCFHome
This week518 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total726 miles0 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest7 days14 days

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