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Week 4 •
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Marshall42 @FINAL 28Middle Tennessee

1-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.4
1-2 CUSA Power rating: -19.2

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MRSH -2.5
PM Implied
MRSH -1.4
Blue Chip model
MRSH -7.5
Edge
-5.0MRSH
See details
◂ favors MRSHfavors MTSU ▸Market: MRSH -2.5
‹ 9.8 MRSH
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MTSU
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 MRSH2 MTSU4 MRSH4 MTSUModel: MRSH -7.5

Betting information

Spread
MRSH -2.5
Total
46.5
Odds implied score
MRSH 24.5 – 22.0 MTSU
Prediction markets
MRSH 57% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Marshall defeated Middle Tennessee 42–28 in a double-digit victory. Marshall covered by 11.5; Game went Over by 23.5. The market closed at Marshall -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Marshall -7.5 - a gap of 5.0 points toward Marshall, of which 4.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Marshall vs Middle Tennessee?

At kickoff, conditions at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium were Partly cloudy, 75°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Marshall travels 281 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Marshall arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Marshall won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Marshall covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 23.5 points.

How do Marshall and Middle Tennessee compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Marshall (-9.4) over Middle Tennessee (-19.2) by 9.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Middle Tennessee faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Middle Tennessee brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Marshall and Middle Tennessee?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Marshall won and Marshall covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

75°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity72%
Wind5 mph SE
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Marshall at Middle Tennessee: aerial view of Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, wind from the SE at 4.5 mph, gusting to 9.4 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM CDT
Venue
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Capacity
27,303
Elevation
656 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

MarshallAway Middle TennesseeHome
This week281 miles0 miles
Last weekHome game3,680 miles
Season total907 miles4,727 miles
Body clock19:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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