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Week 4 •
Fifth Third Stadium

Arkansas State21 @FINAL 28Kennesaw State

1-2 Sun Belt Power rating: -9.8
1-2 CUSA Power rating: -3.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARST -4.5
PM Implied
ARST -3.6
Blue Chip model
KENN -8.9
Edge
+13.4KENN
See details
◂ favors ARSTfavors KENN ▸Market: ARST -4.5
KENN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
KENN
no impact
no impact
no impact
KENN
5 ARST5 KENN10 ARST10 KENN15 ARST15 KENNModel: KENN -8.9

Betting information

Spread
ARST -4.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
ARST 31.0 – 26.5 KENN
Prediction markets
ARST 64% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Kennesaw State defeated Arkansas State 28–21 in a one-score game. Kennesaw State covered by 11.5; Game went Under by 8.5. The market closed at Arkansas State -4.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Kennesaw State -8.9 - a gap of 13.4 points toward Kennesaw State, of which 12.4 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas State vs Kennesaw State?

At kickoff, conditions at Fifth Third Stadium were Thundery outbreaks possible, 79°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas State travels 368 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Arkansas State arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Kennesaw State won by 7 in a one-score game.

Kennesaw State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 8.5 points.

How do Arkansas State and Kennesaw State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Kennesaw State (-3.6) over Arkansas State (-9.8) by 6.2 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Kennesaw State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas State and Kennesaw State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Kennesaw State won and Kennesaw State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Thundery outbreaks possible

79°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity62%
Wind5 mph E
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for Arkansas State at Kennesaw State: aerial view of Fifth Third Stadium, wind from the E at 5.4 mph, gusting to 8.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM EDT
Venue
Fifth Third Stadium
Capacity
10,200
Elevation
1,096 ft
Surface
Hybrid

Travel and rest

Arkansas StateAway Kennesaw StateHome
This week368 miles3 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total610 miles1,313 miles
Body clock17:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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