14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 4 • September 20, 2025, 08:15 PM UTC
Northern Illinois @ Mississippi State
1-1
MAC
Power Rank: -12.9
10 FINAL 38
3-0
SEC
Power Rank: 9.9
Mississippi State covered by 6.5 | Game went Under by 2.5

By · Last updated

Mississippi State defeated Northern Illinois 38–10 in a dominant performance.

Northern Illinois @ Mississippi State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 4
Kick Off (at stadium): 03:15 PM CDT
Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity: 60,311
Elevation: 381 ft
HFA Rating: 2.2
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread Mississippi State -21.5
Total (O/U) 50.5
Expected Score NIU 14.5 - 36.0 MSST
Power Rank Implied Line Mississippi State +22.8
Prediction Markets Mississippi State 94% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

33.4°F

Wind Chill: 27.4°F
Wind: 6.5 mph SW
Gusts: 13.9 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 75%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Northern Illinois (Away)

This Week: 584.7 miles
Last Week: No Game
Season Total: 1894.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:15
Rest Days: 15

Mississippi State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 299.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:15
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Mississippi State -21.5
Total Points 50.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Northern Illinois -12.9
Mississippi State 9.9
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 585 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Northern Illinois +8
HFA: Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity 60,311
Elevation 381 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 33.4°F
Wind Speed 6.5 mph
Your Line Mississippi State +22.8
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Northern Illinois vs Mississippi State?

Northern Illinois: Key Factors

Mississippi State: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Northern Illinois travels 585 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

Mississippi State won by 28 in a dominant performance.

Mississippi State covered the spread, covering the spread.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Davis Wade Stadium?

At 33.4°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Northern Illinois and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Mississippi State (9.9) over Northern Illinois (-12.9) by 22.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Mississippi State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Northern Illinois and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Mississippi State won and Mississippi State covered the spread.