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Week 4 •
Davis Wade Stadium

Northern Illinois10 @FINAL 38Mississippi State

1-1 MAC Power rating: -12.9
3-0 SEC Power rating: 9.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MSST -23.5
PM Implied
MSST -16.9
Blue Chip model
MSST -23.6
Edge
+0.1MSST
See details
◂ favors NIUfavors MSST ▸Market: MSST -23.5
22.8 › MSST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MSST
NIU
no impact
no impact
MSST
1 NIU1 MSST2 NIU2 MSSTModel: MSST -23.6

Betting information

Spread
MSST -23.5
Total
48.5
Odds implied score
NIU 12.5 – 36.0 MSST
Prediction markets
MSST 94% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Mississippi State defeated Northern Illinois 38–10 in a dominant performance. Mississippi State covered by 4.5; Game went Under by 0.5. The market closed at Mississippi State -23.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Mississippi State -23.6. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for Northern Illinois vs Mississippi State?

At kickoff, conditions at Davis Wade Stadium were Clear, 84°F, heat index 85°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Northern Illinois travels 585 miles to this game, a moderate road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Mississippi State won by 28 in a dominant performance.

Mississippi State covered the spread.

The total went Under by 0.5 points.

How do Northern Illinois and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Mississippi State (9.9) over Northern Illinois (-12.9) by 22.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Mississippi State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Northern Illinois and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Mississippi State won and Mississippi State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Clear

84°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity53%
Wind3 mph NNE
Gusts7 mph
Heat index85°F
Wind map for Northern Illinois at Mississippi State: aerial view of Davis Wade Stadium, wind from the NNE at 3.1 mph, gusting to 6.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
03:15 PM CDT
Venue
Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity
60,311
Elevation
381 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

Northern IllinoisAway Mississippi StateHome
This week585 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total1,895 miles300 miles
Body clock15:1515:15
Rest15 days7 days

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