Memphis defeated Arkansas 32–31 in a nail-biter. Memphis covered by 8.0; Game went Over by 3.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium were Sunny, 95.2°F, Heat Index 97.3°F with winds of 3.1 mph. Heat (95.2°F) may be a conditioning factor, particularly in the second half. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
95.2°F
With 1:22 remaining and driving for a potential game-winning score, running back Mike Washington Jr. fumbled at the Memphis 7-yard line, which was recovered by Memphis's Chris Bracy. The turnover sealed a 32-31 loss for Arkansas, marking their second straight defeat.
After a strong first half that saw Arkansas lead 28-17, the offense managed only a field goal and 223 total yards in the second half. Quarterback Taylen Green threw two interceptions, and the team failed to sustain drives, allowing Memphis to rally.
Green threw for 325 yards and a touchdown but also had two costly interceptions. While he showed ability to move the ball through the air, his turnovers and the offense's second-half decline were critical factors in the loss.
Arkansas (2-2) will host Notre Dame next Saturday. The Razorbacks will need to address their second-half offensive consistency and ball security to compete against a strong Fighting Irish team.
Memphis forced a critical fumble by Arkansas' Mike Washington Jr. deep in Tigers territory with 1:22 left, recovered by Chris Bracy, to seal the 32-31 win. This defensive play was pivotal in preserving the victory.
Sutton Smith rushed for a career-high 147 yards, including a 64-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter, and quarterback Brendon Lewis added 103 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The ground game was essential to overcoming Arkansas' lead.
Brendon Lewis contributed 199 passing yards and a touchdown pass, complementing his rushing production. His dual-threat ability kept Arkansas' defense off balance and allowed Memphis to stay competitive.
After allowing 28 points in the first half, Memphis held Arkansas to just a field goal and 223 total yards in the second half. This defensive adjustment was key to the comeback win.
Memphis scored at least 20 points for the 44th consecutive game, the longest active streak in the nation. This consistency bodes well for their upcoming conference opener at Florida Atlantic.
Arkansas travels 245 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Memphis won by 1 in a nail-biter.
Memphis covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Over by 3.5 points.
Heat (95.2°F) may be a conditioning factor, particularly in the second half.
Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Arkansas (10.0) over Memphis (7.8) by 2.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Memphis faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Memphis brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Memphis won and Memphis covered the spread.
