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Week 4 •
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium

Arkansas31 @FINAL 32Memphis

2-1 SEC Power rating: 10.0
3-0 American Power rating: 7.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ARK -7.0
PM Implied
ARK -5.7
Blue Chip model
MEM -0.5
Edge
+7.5MEM
See details
◂ favors ARKfavors MEM ▸Market: ARK -7.0
ARK
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MEM
no impact
no impact
no impact
MEM
5 ARK5 MEMModel: MEM -0.5

Betting information

Spread
ARK -7.0
Total
59.5
Odds implied score
ARK 33.3 – 26.3 MEM
Prediction markets
ARK 72% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Memphis defeated Arkansas 32–31 in a nail-biter. Memphis covered by 8.0; Game went Over by 3.5. The market closed at Arkansas -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Memphis -0.5 - a gap of 7.5 points toward Memphis, of which 6.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Arkansas vs Memphis?

Arkansas

Late Fumble Costs Arkansas the Game

With 1:22 remaining and driving for a potential game-winning score, running back Mike Washington Jr. fumbled at the Memphis 7-yard line, which was recovered by Memphis's Chris Bracy. The turnover sealed a 32-31 loss for Arkansas, marking their second straight defeat.

Second-Half Offensive Struggles

After a strong first half that saw Arkansas lead 28-17, the offense managed only a field goal and 223 total yards in the second half. Quarterback Taylen Green threw two interceptions, and the team failed to sustain drives, allowing Memphis to rally.

Taylen Green's Mixed Performance

Green threw for 325 yards and a touchdown but also had two costly interceptions. While he showed ability to move the ball through the air, his turnovers and the offense's second-half decline were critical factors in the loss.

Upcoming Home Game Against Notre Dame

Arkansas (2-2) will host Notre Dame next Saturday. The Razorbacks will need to address their second-half offensive consistency and ball security to compete against a strong Fighting Irish team.

Memphis

Clutch Defense and Turnover

Memphis forced a critical fumble by Arkansas' Mike Washington Jr. deep in Tigers territory with 1:22 left, recovered by Chris Bracy, to seal the 32-31 win. This defensive play was pivotal in preserving the victory.

Strong Rushing Attack

Sutton Smith rushed for a career-high 147 yards, including a 64-yard touchdown late in the fourth quarter, and quarterback Brendon Lewis added 103 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns. The ground game was essential to overcoming Arkansas' lead.

Balanced Offense from Lewis

Brendon Lewis contributed 199 passing yards and a touchdown pass, complementing his rushing production. His dual-threat ability kept Arkansas' defense off balance and allowed Memphis to stay competitive.

Second-Half Defensive Improvement

After allowing 28 points in the first half, Memphis held Arkansas to just a field goal and 223 total yards in the second half. This defensive adjustment was key to the comeback win.

Scoring Streak Continues

Memphis scored at least 20 points for the 44th consecutive game, the longest active streak in the nation. This consistency bodes well for their upcoming conference opener at Florida Atlantic.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas vs Memphis?

At kickoff, conditions at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium were Sunny, 95°F, heat index 97°F with winds of 3 mph. Heat of 95°F is a conditioning factor, particularly in the second half, and the market has historically charged nothing for it. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas travels 245 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Memphis won by 1 in a nail-biter.

Memphis covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 3.5 points.

How do Arkansas and Memphis compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arkansas (10.0) over Memphis (7.8) by 2.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Memphis faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Memphis brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas and Memphis?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Memphis won and Memphis covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

95°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity31%
Wind3 mph WNW
Gusts4 mph
Heat index97°F
Wind map for Arkansas at Memphis: aerial view of Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, wind from the WNW at 3.1 mph, gusting to 3.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
11:00 AM CDT
Venue
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Capacity
50,000
Elevation
315 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

ArkansasAway MemphisHome
This week245 miles0 miles
Last week576 miles652 miles
Season total821 miles1,319 miles
Body clock11:0011:00
Rest7 days7 days

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