Week 4
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Sam Houston0 @FINAL 55Texas , Week 4, Sep 21, 2025

0-3 CUSA Power rating: -21.8
2-1 SEC Power rating: 19.5

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TEX -39.5
PM Implied
TEX -25.4
Blue Chip model
TEX -44.2
Edge
+4.7TEX
See details
◂ favors SHSUfavors TEX ▸Market: TEX -39.5
41.3 › TEX
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
TEX
SHSU
no impact
no impact
TEX
2 SHSU2 TEX4 SHSU4 TEXModel: TEX -44.2

Betting information

Spread
TEX -39.5
Total
51.5
Odds implied score
SHSU 6.0 – 45.5 TEX
Prediction markets
TEX 99% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Texas defeated Sam Houston 55–0 in a dominant performance. Texas covered by 15.5; Game went Over by 3.5. The market closed at Texas -39.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Texas -44.2 - a gap of 4.7 points toward Texas, of which 3.5 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Sam Houston vs Texas?

Sam Houston

Offensive struggles continue

Sam Houston's offense was completely shut down by Texas, gaining only 17 yards on their first 15 plays and failing to secure a first down until later in the game. This lack of production is a major concern heading into their next matchup.

Defense overwhelmed by Texas

The Bearkats' defense allowed 55 points and 309 passing yards from Arch Manning, with Texas scoring at will. The inability to stop big plays and generate pressure will need to be addressed before facing New Mexico State.

Need for offensive identity

With an 0-4 record and a shutout loss, Sam Houston must establish a consistent offensive identity. The team has struggled to move the ball and score, which will be critical to improve against a winnable opponent in New Mexico State.

What were the weather conditions for Sam Houston vs Texas?

At kickoff, conditions at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium were Cloudy, 83°F, heat index 87°F with winds of 14 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Sam Houston travels 134 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Texas won by 55 in a dominant performance.

Texas covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 3.5 points.

How do Sam Houston and Texas compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Texas (19.5) over Sam Houston (-21.8) by 41.3 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Texas brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Texas won and Texas covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 21, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

83°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity65%
Wind14 mph S
Gusts17 mph
Heat index87°F
Wind map for Sam Houston at Texas: aerial view of DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, wind from the S at 13.6 mph, gusting to 16.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
07:00 PM CDT
Venue
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Capacity
100,119
Elevation
574 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure Sam HoustonAway TexasHome
This week134 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total9,250 miles2,133 miles
Body clock19:0019:00
Rest14 days8 days