Week 4 • Sep 20, 2025, 04:00 PM EDT

Wallace Wade Stadium

NC State33 @FINAL 45Duke , Week 4, Sep 20, 2025

3-0 ACC Power rating: 6.0

1-2 ACC Power rating: 6.8

By Liam Browne · Last updated August 15, 2026

How did the line hold up?

Market line: DUKE -3.0
PM Implied: DUKE -1.8
Blue Chip model: DUKE -3.6
Edge: +0.6DUKE

See details

◂ favors NCSUfavors DUKE ▸Market: DUKE -3.0

Power ratings DUKE

NC State Duke The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team

Home field DUKE

Rest NCSU

Travel no impact

Elevation no impact

Weather DUKE

1 NCSU1 DUKE2 NCSU2 DUKE3 NCSU3 DUKEModel: DUKE -3.6

How the Blue Chip model builds its line for NC State at Duke. Points are home-oriented: a positive number favors Duke.
Input	Points	Favors	Plausible range	Note
Power ratings	+0.8	DUKE	fixed	-
Home field	+2.8	DUKE	+2.1 to +3.6	-
Rest	-0.3	NCSU	-0.6 to 0.0	Away team better rested.
Travel	0.0	no impact	fixed	-
Elevation	0.0	no impact	fixed	-
Weather	+0.3	DUKE	0.0 to +0.5	78°F, heat favors the home team.
Blue Chip line	+3.6	DUKE	-	-
Market line	+3.0	DUKE	-	-
Difference	-0.6	NCSU	-	Market minus model

Betting information

Spread: DUKE -3.0
Total: 57.5
Odds implied score: NCSU 27.3 – 30.3 DUKE
Prediction markets: DUKE 58% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Duke defeated NC State 45–33 in a double-digit victory. Duke covered by 9.0; Game went Over by 20.5. The market closed at Duke -3.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Duke -3.6. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What were the weather conditions for NC State vs Duke?

At kickoff, conditions at Wallace Wade Stadium were Overcast, 78°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

NC State travels 18 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Duke won by 12 in a double-digit victory.

Duke covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 20.5 points.

How do NC State and Duke compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Duke (6.8) over NC State (6.0) by 0.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Duke brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.8). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Model & Methodology

Duke won and Duke covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

78°F

Rain0%

Precip0.00"

Humidity62%

Wind9 mph NE

Gusts15 mph

Wind map for NC State at Duke: aerial view of Wallace Wade Stadium, wind from the NE at 8.5 mph, gusting to 15.2 mph

Quick facts

Week: Week 4
Kickoff (local): 04:00 PM EDT
Venue: Wallace Wade Stadium
Capacity: 40,004
Elevation: 384 ft
Surface: Grass

Travel and rest

Measure	NC StateAway	DukeHome
This week	18 miles	0 miles
Last week	178 miles	1,541 miles
Season total	196 miles	1,541 miles
Body clock	16:00	16:00
Rest	9 days	6 days

How did the line hold up?

Betting information

What were the weather conditions for NC State vs Duke?

What happened in the game?

How do NC State and Duke compare on power ratings?

Where can I find more data on NC State and Duke?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Conditions

Quick facts

Travel and rest

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