Week 4
Williams Stadium (VA)

James Madison31 @FINAL 13Liberty , Week 4, Sep 20, 2025

1-1 Sun Belt Power rating: 9.9
1-2 CUSA Power rating: -8.5

How did the line hold up?

Market line
JMU -7.5
PM Implied
JMU -6.6
Blue Chip model
JMU -16.8
Edge
-9.3JMU
See details
◂ favors JMUfavors LIB ▸Market: JMU -7.5
‹ 18.4 JMU
Adjust the power ratings by team
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
LIB
JMU
no impact
no impact
no impact
5 JMU5 LIB10 JMU10 LIBModel: JMU -16.8

Betting information

Spread
JMU -7.5
Total
46.5
Odds implied score
JMU 27.0 – 19.5 LIB
Prediction markets
JMU 75% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

James Madison defeated Liberty 31–13 to secure a comfortable win. James Madison covered by 10.5; Game went Under by 2.5. The market closed at James Madison -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it James Madison -16.8 - a gap of 9.3 points toward James Madison, of which 8.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for James Madison vs Liberty?

James Madison

Balanced Offensive Attack

James Madison's offense was effective both through the air and on the ground, with QB Alonza Barnett III throwing for 213 yards and a touchdown while also rushing for 45 yards and two scores. RB Wayne Knight added 89 rushing yards and a touchdown, giving the Dukes a versatile attack that will be difficult for future opponents to defend.

Defensive Dominance

The Dukes' defense stifled Liberty's offense, holding them to just 75 passing yards and 233 total yards. This strong defensive performance, especially against the pass, suggests James Madison can control games and limit opposing offenses, which bodes well for upcoming matchups.

Resilience and Second-Half Adjustments

After trailing 10-7 in the second quarter, James Madison tied the game before halftime and then outscored Liberty 21-3 in the second half. This ability to adjust and dominate after the break indicates strong coaching and team composure, key factors for success in future games.

Improved Record and Momentum

With the win, James Madison improved to 2-1, building positive momentum after a loss. The victory in the inaugural Battle of the Blue Ridge series provides confidence and a tangible goal for the team to carry into their next game.

What were the weather conditions for James Madison vs Liberty?

At kickoff, conditions at Williams Stadium (VA) were Sunny, 70°F with winds of 4 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

James Madison travels 76 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

James Madison won by 18 to secure a comfortable win.

James Madison covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 2.5 points.

How do James Madison and Liberty compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor James Madison (9.9) over Liberty (-8.5) by 18.4 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Liberty faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Liberty brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

James Madison won and James Madison covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 20, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

70°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity77%
Wind4 mph E
Gusts9 mph
Wind map for James Madison at Liberty: aerial view of Williams Stadium (VA), wind from the E at 4 mph, gusting to 8.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
03:30 PM EDT
Venue
Williams Stadium (VA)
Capacity
25,000
Elevation
883 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure James MadisonAway LibertyHome
This week76 miles0 miles
Last weekBye week731 miles
Season total825 miles1,619 miles
Body clock15:3015:30
Rest15 days7 days