Week 4
Boone Pickens Stadium

Tulsa19 @FINAL 12Oklahoma State , Week 4, Sep 19, 2025

1-2 American Power rating: -15.7
1-1 Big 12 Power rating: -16.7

How did the line hold up?

Market line
OKST -10.0
PM Implied
OKST -8.0
Blue Chip model
OKST -3.1
Edge
-6.9TLSA
See details
◂ favors TLSAfavors OKST ▸Market: OKST -10.0
TLSA
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OKST
OKST
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OKST
5 TLSA5 OKSTModel: OKST -3.1

Betting information

Spread
OKST -10.0
Total
54.5
Odds implied score
TLSA 22.3 – 32.3 OKST
Prediction markets
OKST 79% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Tulsa defeated Oklahoma State 19–12 in a one-score game. Tulsa covered by 17.0; Game went Under by 23.5. The market closed at Oklahoma State -10.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Oklahoma State -3.1 - a gap of 6.9 points toward Tulsa, of which 5.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Tulsa vs Oklahoma State?

Oklahoma State

Offensive Struggles Continue

Oklahoma State managed only 12 points, with 9 coming in the second half after trailing 16-3 at halftime. The offense gained 403 total yards but was held to 117 in the first half, showing an inability to finish drives.

Defensive Lapses Early

The defense allowed Tulsa to control the ball for nearly 20 minutes in the first half, including three drives of 10+ plays. This led to a 16-3 halftime deficit, putting the Cowboys in a hole they couldn't fully escape.

Zane Flores Shows Promise

Third-year freshman QB Zane Flores passed for 214 yards and rushed for 56 yards, including a 5-yard TD run. His performance in his second career start provides a potential spark for the offense moving forward.

Team in a Downward Trend

Oklahoma State has won only one of its last 12 games dating back to last season. The loss to Tulsa, their first since 1998, and the 69-3 defeat to Oregon highlight a significant decline, with fan frustration evident in 'Fire Gundy' chants.

Key Defensive Performance by Parker Robertson

Linebacker Parker Robertson led both teams with 15 tackles (8 solo), 1.5 tackles for loss, two pass break-ups, and a forced fumble. His effort was a bright spot, but the defense still allowed 19 points and struggled to get off the field.

What were the weather conditions for Tulsa vs Oklahoma State?

At kickoff, conditions at Boone Pickens Stadium were Clear, 75°F with winds of 10 mph. Gusts reaching 20 mph add variance to the kicking and passing game. Games with gusts at or above 30 mph have seen the total move down by about 1.4 points. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Tulsa travels 63 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Tulsa won by 7 in a one-score game.

Tulsa covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 23.5 points.

How do Tulsa and Oklahoma State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Tulsa (-15.7) over Oklahoma State (-16.7) by 1.0 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Oklahoma State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Oklahoma State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Tulsa won and Tulsa covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 19, 2025 Game-time

Clear

75°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity61%
Wind10 mph SE
Gusts20 mph
Wind map for Tulsa at Oklahoma State: aerial view of Boone Pickens Stadium, wind from the SE at 9.6 mph, gusting to 20.1 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 4
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Boone Pickens Stadium
Capacity
52,305
Elevation
965 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure TulsaAway Oklahoma StateHome
This week63 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameBye week
Season total1,408 miles2,950 miles
Body clock18:3018:30
Rest5 days13 days