DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Tennessee defeated Mississippi State 41–34 in a one-score game. Mississippi State covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 11.5. The market closed at Tennessee -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Tennessee -4.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Mississippi State, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Mississippi State outgained Tennessee on the ground 198-131, with Fluff Bothwell rushing for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, showcasing a potent rushing attack.
The Bulldogs' defense allowed 466 total yards and two defensive touchdowns, while losing key players Albert Reese, Isaac Smith, and Brylan Lanier to injuries, which could impact depth and performance.
Mississippi State led 34-27 late in the fourth quarter but failed to close out the game, allowing Tennessee to tie and win in overtime, missing a chance for a 5-0 start with two top-15 wins.
Blake Shapen was sacked five times and faced consistent pressure, leading to an interception and affecting the passing game, which needs improvement for future matchups.
Mississippi State travels to face Texas A&M on Oct. 4, needing to address defensive consistency and injury concerns to compete against another SEC opponent.
At kickoff, conditions at Davis Wade Stadium were Clear, 76°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Clear
76°F
| Measure | TennesseeAway | Mississippi StateHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 326 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | Home game |
| Season total | 634 miles | 300 miles |
| Body clock | 16:15 | 15:15 |
| Rest | 7 days | 7 days |
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