Tennessee defeated Mississippi State 41–34 in a one-score game. Mississippi State covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 11.5.
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At kick-off, conditions at Davis Wade Stadium were Clear, 75.7°F, Feels Like 79.7°F with winds of 6.0 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
75.7°F
Mississippi State outgained Tennessee on the ground 198-131, with Fluff Bothwell rushing for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, showcasing a potent rushing attack.
The Bulldogs' defense allowed 466 total yards and two defensive touchdowns, while losing key players Albert Reese, Isaac Smith, and Brylan Lanier to injuries, which could impact depth and performance.
Mississippi State led 34-27 late in the fourth quarter but failed to close out the game, allowing Tennessee to tie and win in overtime, missing a chance for a 5-0 start with two top-15 wins.
Blake Shapen was sacked five times and faced consistent pressure, leading to an interception and affecting the passing game, which needs improvement for future matchups.
Mississippi State travels to face Texas A&M on Oct. 4, needing to address defensive consistency and injury concerns to compete against another SEC opponent.
Tennessee travels 326 miles to this game, a short road trip.
Tennessee arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
Tennessee won by 7 in a one-score game.
Mississippi State covered the spread narrowly.
The total went Over by 11.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Tennessee (16.2) over Mississippi State (10.9) by 5.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Mississippi State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Mississippi State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Tennessee won and Mississippi State covered the spread.
