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Week 5 •
Davis Wade Stadium

Tennessee41 @FINAL 34Mississippi State

3-1 SEC Power rating: 16.2
4-0 SEC Power rating: 10.9

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
TENN -7.5
PM Implied
TENN -5.9
Blue Chip model
TENN -4.0
Edge
+3.5MSST
See details
◂ favors TENNfavors MSST ▸Market: TENN -7.5
‹ 5.3 TENN
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MSST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 TENN2 MSST4 TENN4 MSSTModel: TENN -4.0

Betting information

Spread
TENN -7.5
Total
63.5
Odds implied score
TENN 35.5 – 28.0 MSST
Prediction markets
TENN 72% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Tennessee defeated Mississippi State 41–34 in a one-score game. Mississippi State covered by 0.5; Game went Over by 11.5. The market closed at Tennessee -7.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Tennessee -4.0 - a gap of 3.5 points toward Mississippi State, of which 2.7 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Tennessee vs Mississippi State?

Mississippi State

Strong Ground Game

Mississippi State outgained Tennessee on the ground 198-131, with Fluff Bothwell rushing for 134 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries, showcasing a potent rushing attack.

Defensive Struggles and Injuries

The Bulldogs' defense allowed 466 total yards and two defensive touchdowns, while losing key players Albert Reese, Isaac Smith, and Brylan Lanier to injuries, which could impact depth and performance.

Missed Opportunity for Upset

Mississippi State led 34-27 late in the fourth quarter but failed to close out the game, allowing Tennessee to tie and win in overtime, missing a chance for a 5-0 start with two top-15 wins.

Quarterback Pressure Issues

Blake Shapen was sacked five times and faced consistent pressure, leading to an interception and affecting the passing game, which needs improvement for future matchups.

Next Game at Texas A&M

Mississippi State travels to face Texas A&M on Oct. 4, needing to address defensive consistency and injury concerns to compete against another SEC opponent.

What were the weather conditions for Tennessee vs Mississippi State?

At kickoff, conditions at Davis Wade Stadium were Clear, 76°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Tennessee travels 326 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Tennessee arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Tennessee won by 7 in a one-score game.

Mississippi State covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Over by 11.5 points.

How do Tennessee and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Tennessee (16.2) over Mississippi State (10.9) by 5.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Mississippi State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Mississippi State brings a modest home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 1.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Tennessee and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Tennessee won and Mississippi State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Clear

76°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity64%
Wind6 mph N
Gusts13 mph
Wind map for Tennessee at Mississippi State: aerial view of Davis Wade Stadium, wind from the N at 6 mph, gusting to 12.8 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
03:15 PM CDT
Venue
Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity
60,311
Elevation
381 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

TennesseeAway Mississippi StateHome
This week326 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total634 miles300 miles
Body clock16:1515:15
Rest7 days7 days

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