14 Final 28 9 Final 20 7 Final 42 14 Final 51 7 Final 38 31 Final 35 45 Final 19 9 Final 56 24 Final 34 0 Final 34 20 Final 27 13 Final 16 14 Final 62 48 Final 45 0 Final 66 17 Final 45 3 Final 77 22 Final 44 10 Final 42 7 Final 55 22 Final 32 31 Final 42 0 Final 70 36 Final 27 12 Final 59 43 Final 36 13 Final 20 6 Final 45 24 Final 38 16 Final 27 30 Final 23 7 Final 31 20 Final 34 17 Final 72 27 Final 26 6 Final 28 33 Final 30 3 Final 69 17 Final 45 7 Final 31 10 Final 17 10 Final 42 18 Final 16 20 Final 38 17 Final 20 14 Final 56 21 Final 20 6 Final 54 3 Final 56 14 Final 56 9 Final 63 3 Final 35 33 Final 31 24 Final 21 21 Final 45 17 Final 21 38 Final 16 20 Final 3 7 Final 68 10 Final 38 3 Final 45 35 Final 9 28 Final 23 40 Final 42 20 Final 59 13 Final 24 0 Final 68 44 Final 20 0 Final 13 17 Final 34 7 Final 23 20 Final 24 3 Final 42 0 Final 73 23 Final 30 10 Final 34 14 Final 21 17 Final 42 3 Final 48 13 Final 36 3 Final 27 10 Final 70 20 Final 37
Week 5 • September 27, 2025, 08:15 PM UTC
Tennessee @ Mississippi State
3-1
SEC
Power Rank: 16.2
41 FINAL 34
4-0
SEC
Power Rank: 10.9
Mississippi State covered by 0.5 | Game went Over by 13.5

By · Last updated

Tennessee defeated Mississippi State 41–34 in a one-score game.

Tennessee @ Mississippi State Preview

General Information

Week: Week 5
Kick Off (at stadium): 03:15 PM CDT
Stadium: Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity: 60,311
Elevation: 381 ft
HFA Rating: 2.2
Playing Surface: Grass

Betting Information

Spread Tennessee -7.5
Total (O/U) 61.5
Expected Score TENN 34.5 - 27.0 MSST
Power Rank Implied Line Tennessee +5.3
Prediction Markets Tennessee 72% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

33.4°F

Wind Chill: 27.4°F
Wind: 6.5 mph SW
Gusts: 13.9 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 75%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Tennessee (Away)

This Week: 326.2 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 634.2 miles
Body Clock Time: 16:15
Rest Days: 7

Mississippi State (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: Home Game
Season Total: 299.9 miles
Body Clock Time: 15:15
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line Tennessee -7.5
Total Points 61.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Tennessee 16.2
Mississippi State 10.9
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 326 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: Davis Wade Stadium
Capacity 60,311
Elevation 381 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 33.4°F
Wind Speed 6.5 mph
Your Line Mississippi State -5.3
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Tennessee vs Mississippi State?

Tennessee: Key Factors

Mississippi State: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Tennessee travels 326 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Tennessee arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.

Tennessee won by 7 in a one-score game.

Mississippi State covered the spread, covering narrowly.

The total went Over by 13.5 points.

Does weather affect this game at Davis Wade Stadium?

At 33.4°F, this is a cold-weather game. Cold conditions below 35°F historically compress scoring and reduce passing efficiency, favouring unders and run-heavy offences.

Full conditions are shown in the data panel above. Forecast data sourced from WeatherAPI.com. Use the Line Value Calculator to apply a manual weather adjustment to your projected line.

How do Tennessee and Mississippi State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Tennessee (16.2) over Mississippi State (10.9) by 5.3 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Mississippi State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Mississippi State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.2). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Tennessee and Mississippi State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

Tennessee won and Mississippi State covered the spread.