Week 5 •
Memorial Stadium

Massachusetts6 @FINAL 42Missouri , Week 5, Sep 27, 2025

0-3 MAC Power rating: -27.5
4-0 SEC Power rating: 16.3

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MIZ -44.5
PM Implied
MIZ -25.4
Blue Chip model
MIZ -45.8
Edge
+1.3MIZ
See details
◂ favors MASSfavors MIZ ▸Market: MIZ -44.5
43.8 › MIZ
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1 MASS1 MIZ2 MASS2 MIZModel: MIZ -45.8

Betting information

Spread
MIZ -44.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
MASS 6.5 – 51.0 MIZ
Prediction markets
MIZ 99% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Missouri defeated Massachusetts 42–6 in a dominant performance. Massachusetts covered by 8.5; Game went Under by 9.5. The market closed at Missouri -44.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Missouri -45.8, an edge of 1.3 points toward Missouri.

What are the key factors for Massachusetts vs Missouri?

Massachusetts

Defensive Bright Spot: Timmy Hinspeter

Linebacker Timmy Hinspeter had a standout performance with 17 tackles, two tackles for loss, a sack, and an interception returned 63 yards, showing he can be a key playmaker against Western Michigan.

Offensive Struggles Continue

Quarterback AJ Hairston completed only 11 of 31 passes for 75 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and the offense managed just 6 points, indicating ongoing issues that need addressing before next week.

Turnover Margin Key

UMass forced a turnover (interception) but also gave up a pick-six opportunity, and the defense allowed Missouri to dominate after the early mistake, highlighting the need to win the turnover battle.

Run Defense Exposed

Missouri rushed for 268 yards, including 130 from Ahmad Hardy, showing UMass's run defense is vulnerable, which Western Michigan may exploit.

Special Teams Miscue

A blocked extra point kept the score at 7-6 early, but the team failed to capitalize, and special teams must be more reliable to stay competitive.

Missouri

Record-setting passing performance

QB Beau Pribula completed a Missouri-record 21 consecutive passes, finishing 26 of 29 for 241 yards and a TD, showing elite accuracy and control after an early interception.

Dominant rushing attack

Ahmad Hardy rushed for 130 yards and 3 TDs, extending his streak of 100-yard games to seven. The team totaled 268 rushing yards, with Jamal Roberts and Marquise Davis providing depth.

Improved pass defense

After allowing 302 passing yards to South Carolina, the Tigers held UMass to 75 yards through the air and forced an interception, indicating defensive adjustments.

Run defense remains stout

Missouri's run defense limited UMass to just 19 rushing yards, following a performance where they held South Carolina to -9 yards, showcasing a dominant front.

Key areas to improve before Alabama

Coach Drinkwitz noted pocket climbing issues leading to tipped passes and sacks, which must be corrected ahead of facing No. 17 Alabama on Oct. 11.

What were the weather conditions for Massachusetts vs Missouri?

At kickoff, conditions at Memorial Stadium were Partly cloudy, 66°F with winds of 2 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Massachusetts travels 1,064 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

Massachusetts arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Missouri won by 36 in a dominant performance.

Massachusetts covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 9.5 points.

How do Massachusetts and Missouri compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Missouri (16.3) over Massachusetts (-27.5) by 43.8 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Missouri brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.4). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Weather

Missouri won and Massachusetts covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Partly cloudy

66°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity71%
Wind2 mph SW
Gusts5 mph
Wind map for Massachusetts at Missouri: aerial view of Memorial Stadium, wind from the SW at 2.2 mph, gusting to 4.7 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
06:30 PM CDT
Venue
Memorial Stadium
Capacity
62,621
Elevation
699 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure MassachusettsAway MissouriHome
This week1,064 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total3,020 miles0 miles
Body clock19:3018:30
Rest14 days7 days