26 Final 23 38 Final 61 13 Final 20 30 Final 24 34 Final 6 31 Final 34 34 Final 41 16 Final 35 19 Final 16 38 Final 35 14 Final 28 28 Final 31 38 Final 45 14 Final 42 24 Final 20 13 Final 6 20 Final 59 49 Final 51 23 Final 52 24 Final 37 38 Final 17 24 Final 25 28 Final 27 20 Final 35 10 Final 21 24 Final 27 56 Final 21 31 Final 39 24 Final 31 20 Final 31 49 Final 39 10 Final 13 23 Final 15 10 Final 28 17 Final 34 49 Final 27 17 Final 28 20 Final 24 21 Final 14 13 Final 28 31 Final 35 0 Final 26 31 Final 10 49 Final 56 20 Final 16 24 Final 57 32 Final 38 3 Final 39 17 Final 20 7 Final 24 27 Final 34 17 Final 34 31 Final 30 42 Final 19 16 Final 21 13 Final 21
Week 5 •
Boone Pickens Stadium

Baylor45 @FINAL 27Oklahoma State

2-2 Big 12 Power rating: 11.1
1-2 Big 12 Power rating: -15.4

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
BAY -21.0
PM Implied
BAY -15.0
Blue Chip model
BAY -23.4
Edge
-2.4BAY
See details
◂ favors BAYfavors OKST ▸Market: BAY -21.0
‹ 26.5 BAY
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
OKST
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
1 BAY1 OKST2 BAY2 OKST3 BAY3 OKSTModel: BAY -23.4

Betting information

Spread
BAY -21.0
Total
58.5
Odds implied score
BAY 39.8 – 18.8 OKST
Prediction markets
BAY 91% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Baylor defeated Oklahoma State 45–27 to secure a comfortable win. Oklahoma State covered by 3.0; Game went Over by 13.5. The market closed at Baylor -21.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Baylor -23.4, an edge of 2.4 points toward Baylor.

What are the key factors for Baylor vs Oklahoma State?

Oklahoma State

Offensive Improvement Under Interim Coach

The Cowboys showed significant offensive improvement, posting a season-high 448 yards and scoring 27 points, a stark contrast to their previous losses where they managed only 3 and 12 points. This suggests the team is adapting to interim coach Doug Meacham's more aggressive approach.

Creative Play-Calling with Non-Quarterback Passes

Oklahoma State utilized trick plays, including a double pass from receiver Sam Jackson V for a touchdown and a completion from running back Trent Howland. This creativity kept Baylor's defense off balance and indicates Meacham will continue to use Jackson as a passing threat, which could be a key factor in future games.

Career Performances from Key Players

Quarterback Zane Flores threw for a career-high 232 yards, and running back Trent Howland rushed for career highs of 84 yards and two touchdowns. These individual breakthroughs provide a foundation for the offense moving forward, especially as they face Arizona next week.

Defensive Struggles Remain a Concern

Despite the offensive improvement, the defense allowed 612 total yards and 45 points to Baylor, including four touchdown passes. This leaky defense could be exploited by Arizona, which may have a potent offense, making it a critical area to address in practice.

Team Morale and Culture Shine Through

Interim coach Meacham praised the team's fight and unity, noting they had fun and played hard despite the loss. This positive morale, built under former coach Mike Gundy, could help the Cowboys stay competitive and potentially pull off an upset against Arizona if they continue to improve.

What were the weather conditions for Baylor vs Oklahoma State?

At kickoff, conditions at Boone Pickens Stadium were Sunny, 78°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Baylor travels 315 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Baylor won by 18 to secure a comfortable win.

Oklahoma State covered the spread.

The total went Over by 13.5 points.

How do Baylor and Oklahoma State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Baylor (11.1) over Oklahoma State (-15.4) by 26.5 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Oklahoma State faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Oklahoma State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Baylor and Oklahoma State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Baylor won and Oklahoma State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity51%
Wind6 mph SSE
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for Baylor at Oklahoma State: aerial view of Boone Pickens Stadium, wind from the SSE at 5.6 mph, gusting to 11.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Boone Pickens Stadium
Capacity
52,305
Elevation
965 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

BaylorAway Oklahoma StateHome
This week315 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total495 miles2,950 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days8 days

Other games this week