35 Final 21 3 Final 24 @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @ @
Week 5 •
Falcon Stadium

Hawai'i44 @FINAL 35Air Force

3-2 MW Power rating: -7.4
1-2 MW Power rating: -7.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
AF -7.0
PM Implied
AF -5.5
Blue Chip model
AF -3.7
Edge
-3.3HAW
See details
◂ favors HAWfavors AF ▸Market: AF -7.0
HAW
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
AF
no impact
AF
AF
no impact
1 HAW1 AF2 HAW2 AF3 HAW3 AFModel: AF -3.7

Betting information

Spread
AF -7.0
Total
52.5
Odds implied score
HAW 22.8 – 29.8 AF
Prediction markets
AF 70% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Hawai'i defeated Air Force 44–35 in a two-score game. Hawai'i covered by 16.0; Game went Over by 26.5. The market closed at Air Force -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Air Force -3.7, an edge of 3.3 points toward Hawai'i.

What were the weather conditions for Hawai'i vs Air Force?

At kickoff, conditions at Falcon Stadium were Clear, 57°F with winds of 9 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Hawai'i travels 3,345 miles to this game, a cross-country trip.

A trip of this length is worth roughly two thirds of a point to the home team on the measured evidence.

Hawai'i won by 9 in a two-score game.

Hawai'i covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Over by 26.5 points.

How do Hawai'i and Air Force compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings rate Hawai'i (-7.4) and Air Force (-7.8) as essentially equal on a neutral field. In this range, home field, travel, rest, and weather context carry more weight than the raw rating differential. Air Force brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Hawai'i and Air Force?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Hawai'i won and Hawai'i covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Clear

57°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity57%
Wind9 mph SSE
Gusts19 mph
Wind map for Hawai'i at Air Force: aerial view of Falcon Stadium, wind from the SSE at 9.2 mph, gusting to 19.2 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM MDT
Venue
Falcon Stadium
Capacity
39,441
Elevation
6,657 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Hawai'iAway Air ForceHome
This week3,345 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total9,282 miles827 miles
Body clock10:0014:00
Rest6 days7 days

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