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Week 5 •
Sanford Stadium

Alabama24 @FINAL 21Georgia

2-1 SEC Power rating: 24.9
3-0 SEC Power rating: 19.1

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
UGA -2.5
PM Implied
UGA -1.7
Blue Chip model
ALA -3.3
Edge
-5.8ALA
See details
◂ favors ALAfavors UGA ▸Market: UGA -2.5
ALA
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
UGA
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ALA2 UGA4 ALA4 UGA6 ALA6 UGAModel: ALA -3.3

Betting information

Spread
UGA -2.5
Total
53.5
Odds implied score
ALA 25.5 – 28.0 UGA
Prediction markets
UGA 57% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Alabama defeated Georgia 24–21 in a nail-biter. Alabama covered by 5.5; Game went Under by 8.5. The market closed at Georgia -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Alabama -3.3 - a gap of 5.8 points toward Alabama, of which 5.0 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for Alabama vs Georgia?

Alabama

Third-down dominance

Alabama converted 12 of 19 third downs on offense while holding Georgia to just 2 of 8 on defense, controlling the game's tempo and possession.

Ty Simpson's efficient performance

Simpson passed for 276 yards and two touchdowns and added a rushing score, leading the offense without turnovers and keeping drives alive.

Key defensive stop on fourth down

With Alabama leading 24-21 in the fourth quarter, LT Overton stopped Georgia's fourth-and-1 run at the Alabama 8-yard line, preserving the lead.

Momentum from three-game win streak

After an opening loss to Florida State, Alabama has won three straight, showing improvement and resilience heading into conference play.

Upcoming home game vs. Vanderbilt

Alabama hosts No. 18 Vanderbilt next Saturday; the Commodores are 5-0 for the first time since 2008, so the Crimson Tide must maintain focus and execution.

Georgia

Home winning streak snapped

Georgia lost its first home game in six years, ending a 33-game home winning streak that was the longest active in FBS. This could affect team morale and home-field advantage perception.

Third-down struggles on defense

Georgia allowed Alabama to convert 12 of 19 third downs while only converting 2 of 8 themselves. This inefficiency on both sides of the ball was a key factor in the loss and must be addressed.

Running back rotation emerges

Freshman Chauncey Bowens took over as the lead back after Nate Frazier's fumble, rushing for 119 yards and a touchdown. The Bulldogs ran for 227 yards overall, but passing game was limited to 130 yards.

Missed tackles persist

Georgia continued to struggle with missed tackles, a problem that was evident in the previous week's game at Tennessee. This defensive issue allowed Alabama to gain 262 yards in the first half.

Next opponent: Kentucky

Georgia hosts Kentucky next Saturday. Kentucky lost to South Carolina 35-13, so Georgia will look to rebound and fix their defensive issues against a less potent offense.

What were the weather conditions for Alabama vs Georgia?

At kickoff, conditions at Sanford Stadium were Overcast, 74°F with winds of 1 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Alabama travels 246 miles to this game, a short road trip.

Alabama arrives with a 1-hour eastward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Alabama won by 3 in a nail-biter.

Alabama covered the spread.

The total went Under by 8.5 points.

How do Alabama and Georgia compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Alabama (24.9) over Georgia (19.1) by 5.8 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, Georgia faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. Georgia brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Alabama and Georgia?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Alabama won and Alabama covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Overcast

74°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity81%
Wind1 mph SW
Gusts3 mph
Wind map for Alabama at Georgia: aerial view of Sanford Stadium, wind from the SW at 1.1 mph, gusting to 2.5 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
07:30 PM EDT
Venue
Sanford Stadium
Capacity
93,033
Elevation
715 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

AlabamaAway GeorgiaHome
This week246 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekBye week
Season total786 miles283 miles
Body clock18:3019:30
Rest14 days14 days

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