DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026
Virginia defeated Florida State 46–38 in a one-score game. Virginia covered by 15.0; Game went Over by 24.5. The market closed at Florida State -7.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Florida State -0.7 - a gap of 6.3 points toward Virginia, of which 5.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.
Florida State fell behind 14-0 early due to two first-quarter turnovers that Virginia turned into touchdowns, forcing the Seminoles to play catch-up all game.
Despite the early deficit, Florida State rallied to force overtime with a fourth-down touchdown pass with 32 seconds left, but couldn't finish in the second OT, losing 46-38.
Florida State committed two interceptions in the first quarter, leading directly to Virginia scores, while only forcing two interceptions themselves, highlighting a key area of concern.
Quarterback Tommy Castellanos threw for 254 yards and a touchdown, ran for 78 yards and a score, and Duce Robinson caught 9 passes for 147 yards and a TD, showing the offense can produce.
Florida State will host Miami next Saturday night, needing to correct early-game mistakes and improve turnover margin to avoid a second straight ACC loss.
At kickoff, conditions at Scott Stadium were Overcast, 70°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.
Overcast
70°F
| Measure | Florida StateAway | VirginiaHome |
|---|---|---|
| This week | 619 miles | 0 miles |
| Last week | Home game | Home game |
| Season total | 619 miles | 308 miles |
| Body clock | 19:00 | 19:00 |
| Rest | 6 days | 6 days |
