Kansas State defeated UCF 34–20 in a double-digit victory. Kansas State covered by 8.0; Game went Over by 5.5.
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Positive adjustment = favours home team
At kick-off, conditions at Bill Snyder Family Stadium were Sunny, 86.4°F, Heat Index 89.1°F with winds of 2.5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel below.
86.4°F
Kansas State secured its first Big 12 win of the season, improving to 2-3 overall and 1-1 in conference play. The offense showed balance with 168 passing yards and 268 rushing yards, led by Avery Johnson's dual-threat performance (168 pass yards, 75 rush yards) and Dylan Edwards' 166 rushing yards.
The defense made a crucial fourth-down stop with just over 4 minutes left, preserving a 31-20 lead after UCF had mounted a comeback. This was a key improvement after giving up explosive plays earlier in the game.
Wide receiver Jayce Brown, the team's leading receiver with 25 catches for 284 yards and two touchdowns, was unable to play for most of the game due to an undisclosed issue. His status for next week's game at Baylor is uncertain.
For the first time this season, Kansas State turned Johnson loose as a runner, and he finished with 75 rushing yards, the third-best rushing total of his career. This added dimension seemed to open up the offense and could be a key factor moving forward.
Kansas State will travel to face Baylor on Saturday. The Wildcats will look to build on their first Big 12 win and continue to develop offensive consistency, especially if Jayce Brown is available.
UCF travels 1,144 miles to this game, a significant road trip.
UCF arrives with a 1-hour body clock shift.
Kansas State won by 14 in a double-digit victory.
Kansas State covered the spread by a solid margin.
The total went Over by 5.5 points.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Kansas State (7.8) over UCF (6.3) by 1.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Kansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.
Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.
Kansas State won and Kansas State covered the spread.
