Week 5 • Sep 27, 2025, 11:00 AM CDT

Bill Snyder Family Stadium

UCF20 @FINAL 34Kansas State , Week 5, Sep 27, 2025

3-0 Big 12 Power rating: 6.3

1-3 Big 12 Power rating: 7.8

By Liam Browne · Last updated August 14, 2026

How did the line hold up?

Market line: KSU -6.0
PM Implied: KSU -3.9
Blue Chip model: KSU -6.3
Edge: +0.3KSU

See details

◂ favors UCFfavors KSU ▸Market: KSU -6.0

Power ratings KSU

UCF Kansas State The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team

Home field KSU

Rest KSU

Travel KSU

Elevation no impact

Weather KSU

1 UCF1 KSU2 UCF2 KSU3 UCF3 KSUModel: KSU -6.3

How the Blue Chip model builds its line for UCF at Kansas State. Points are home-oriented: a positive number favors Kansas State.
Input	Points	Favors	Plausible range	Note
Power ratings	+1.5	KSU	fixed	-
Home field	+3.1	KSU	+2.4 to +3.9	-
Rest	+0.8	KSU	+0.5 to +1.0	Home team off a bye.
Travel	+0.3	KSU	0.0 to +0.7	Visitor west 1 time zone (includes distance).
Elevation	0.0	no impact	fixed	-
Weather	+0.5	KSU	0.0 to +1.0	86°F, heat favors the home team.
Blue Chip line	+6.3	KSU	-	-
Market line	+6.0	KSU	-	-
Difference	-0.3	UCF	-	Market minus model

Betting information

Spread: KSU -6.0
Total: 48.5
Odds implied score: UCF 21.3 – 27.3 KSU
Prediction markets: KSU 66% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Kansas State defeated UCF 34–20 in a double-digit victory. Kansas State covered by 8.0; Game went Over by 5.5. The market closed at Kansas State -6.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Kansas State -6.3. The two were within a point of each other, so there was no meaningful edge in this line.

What are the key factors for UCF vs Kansas State?

Kansas State

First Big 12 win and improved offensive balance

Kansas State secured its first Big 12 win of the season, improving to 2-3 overall and 1-1 in conference play. The offense showed balance with 168 passing yards and 268 rushing yards, led by Avery Johnson's dual-threat performance (168 pass yards, 75 rush yards) and Dylan Edwards' 166 rushing yards.

Defensive resilience in critical moments

The defense made a crucial fourth-down stop with just over 4 minutes left, preserving a 31-20 lead after UCF had mounted a comeback. This was a key improvement after giving up explosive plays earlier in the game.

Injury to leading receiver Jayce Brown

Wide receiver Jayce Brown, the team's leading receiver with 25 catches for 284 yards and two touchdowns, was unable to play for most of the game due to an undisclosed issue. His status for next week's game at Baylor is uncertain.

Avery Johnson's increased rushing role

For the first time this season, Kansas State turned Johnson loose as a runner, and he finished with 75 rushing yards, the third-best rushing total of his career. This added dimension seemed to open up the offense and could be a key factor moving forward.

Next game at Baylor

Kansas State will travel to face Baylor on Saturday. The Wildcats will look to build on their first Big 12 win and continue to develop offensive consistency, especially if Jayce Brown is available.

What were the weather conditions for UCF vs Kansas State?

At kickoff, conditions at Bill Snyder Family Stadium were Sunny, 86°F, heat index 89°F with winds of 3 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

UCF travels 1,144 miles to this game, a significant road trip.

UCF arrives with a 1-hour westward body clock shift, short of the two-zone westward threshold where travel starts to price.

Kansas State won by 14 in a double-digit victory.

Kansas State covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Over by 5.5 points.

How do UCF and Kansas State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Kansas State (7.8) over UCF (6.3) by 1.5 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Kansas State brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Sources

Model & Methodology

Kansas State won and Kansas State covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Sunny

86°F

Rain0%

Precip0.00"

Humidity44%

Wind3 mph W

Gusts3 mph

Heat index89°F

Wind map for UCF at Kansas State: aerial view of Bill Snyder Family Stadium, wind from the W at 2.5 mph, gusting to 2.9 mph

Quick facts

Week: Week 5
Kickoff (local): 11:00 AM CDT
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Capacity: 50,000
Elevation: 1,129 ft
Surface: Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Measure	UCFAway	Kansas StateHome
This week	1,144 miles	0 miles
Last week	Home game	Bye week
Season total	1,144 miles	10,152 miles
Body clock	12:00	11:00
Rest	7 days	14 days