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Week 5 •
Hornet Stadium

Cal Poly32 @FINAL 24Sacramento State

0-0 Big Sky Power rating: -28.0
2-2 Big Sky Power rating: -18.0

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
SAC -18.0
PM Implied
Not yet available
Blue Chip model
SAC -12.3
Edge
-5.8CP
See details
◂ favors CPfavors SAC ▸Market: SAC -18.0
10.0 › SAC
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
SAC
no impact
no impact
no impact
CP
2 CP2 SAC4 CP4 SAC6 CP6 SACModel: SAC -12.3

Betting information

Spread
SAC -18.0
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
CP 19.8 – 37.8 SAC

ESPN Bet · as of July 8, 2026

Cal Poly defeated Sacramento State 32–24 in a one-score game. Cal Poly covered by 26.0; Game went Under by 1.5. The market closed at Sacramento State -18.0 and the Blue Chip model made it Sacramento State -12.3 - a gap of 5.8 points toward Cal Poly, of which 4.8 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Sacramento State 10.0 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Cal Poly vs Sacramento State?

At kickoff, conditions at Hornet Stadium were Cloudy, 60°F with winds of 12 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Cal Poly travels 229 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Cal Poly won by 8 in a one-score game.

Cal Poly covered the spread comfortably.

The total went Under by 1.5 points.

How do Cal Poly and Sacramento State compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Sacramento State (-18.0) over Cal Poly (-28.0) by 10.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Sacramento State brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Cal Poly and Sacramento State?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Cal Poly won and Cal Poly covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 28, 2025 Game-time

Cloudy

60°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity86%
Wind12 mph SW
Gusts19 mph
Wind map for Cal Poly at Sacramento State: aerial view of Hornet Stadium, wind from the SW at 12.1 mph, gusting to 18.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
06:00 PM PDT
Venue
Hornet Stadium
Capacity
21,195
Elevation
49 ft
Surface
Unknown

Travel and rest

Cal PolyAway Sacramento StateHome
This week229 miles0 miles
Last weekBye weekHome game
Season total1,449 miles2,889 miles
Body clock18:0018:00
Rest7 days7 days

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