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Week 5 •
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium

LSU19 @FINAL 24Ole Miss

4-0 SEC Power rating: 12.6
4-0 SEC Power rating: 21.6

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
MISS -2.5
PM Implied
MISS -0.8
Blue Chip model
MISS -11.8
Edge
+9.3MISS
See details
◂ favors LSUfavors MISS ▸Market: MISS -2.5
MISS
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
MISS
no impact
no impact
no impact
MISS
5 LSU5 MISS10 LSU10 MISSModel: MISS -11.8

Betting information

Spread
MISS -2.5
Total
57.5
Odds implied score
LSU 27.5 – 30.0 MISS
Prediction markets
MISS 53% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

Ole Miss defeated LSU 24–19 in a closely contested finish. Ole Miss covered by 2.5; Game went Under by 14.5. The market closed at Ole Miss -2.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Ole Miss -11.8 - a gap of 9.3 points toward Ole Miss, of which 8.3 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge.

What are the key factors for LSU vs Ole Miss?

Ole Miss

Chambliss Emerges as Reliable Starter

Trinidad Chambliss, a Division II transfer, threw for 314 yards and a touchdown, marking his third straight 300-yard game since taking over for injured QB Austin Simmons. His dual-threat capability and growing confidence in Lane Kiffin's up-tempo offense have been key to Ole Miss's 3-0 start in SEC play.

Balanced Offensive Attack

Ole Miss outgained LSU 480-254 yards, with 166 rushing yards including touchdowns from Kewan Lacy and Logan Diggs. The offense's ability to mix run and pass, along with effective clock management late in the game, sealed the win and demonstrated versatility against a top-5 defense.

Defensive Resilience and Key Stops

The defense held LSU to 57 rushing yards and forced a critical 2-point conversion stop by Suntarine Perkins. Despite allowing some late scoring, the unit limited LSU's explosive plays and intercepted Garrett Nussmeier once, showing improvement in high-pressure situations.

Momentum and Confidence Boost

Beating a top-5 rival like LSU at home provides significant momentum for Ole Miss, now 5-0 overall and 3-0 in SEC play. The win validates the team's potential and could propel them higher in the rankings, setting up a favorable matchup against Washington State after a bye week.

Upcoming Bye and Preparation for Washington State

Ole Miss has a bye next weekend before hosting Washington State on Oct. 11. The extra time will allow injured players to recover and the coaching staff to refine game plans, particularly focusing on maintaining offensive efficiency and defensive consistency against a non-conference opponent.

What were the weather conditions for LSU vs Ole Miss?

At kickoff, conditions at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium were Clear, 79°F with winds of 5 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

LSU travels 289 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

Ole Miss won by 5 in a closely contested finish.

Ole Miss covered the spread narrowly.

The total went Under by 14.5 points.

How do LSU and Ole Miss compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Ole Miss (21.6) over LSU (12.6) by 9.0 points on a neutral field. After adding home field advantage, the rating-implied line may differ meaningfully from the market spread. Ole Miss brings a meaningful home field advantage to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 2.5). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on LSU and Ole Miss?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

Ole Miss won and Ole Miss covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Clear

79°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity54%
Wind5 mph N
Gusts10 mph
Wind map for LSU at Ole Miss: aerial view of Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, wind from the N at 4.9 mph, gusting to 10.3 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
02:30 PM CDT
Venue
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Capacity
64,038
Elevation
472 ft
Surface
Grass

Travel and rest

LSUAway Ole MissHome
This week289 miles0 miles
Last weekHome gameHome game
Season total1,425 miles755 miles
Body clock14:3014:30
Rest7 days7 days

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