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Week 5 • September 27, 2025, 07:00 PM UTC
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe
1-3
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -10.6
16 FINAL 28
2-1
Sun Belt
Power Rank: -16.8
UL Monroe covered by 9.5 | Game went Under by 12.5

By · Last updated

UL Monroe defeated Arkansas State 28–16 in a double-digit victory. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Arkansas State 6.2 points stronger on a neutral field.

Arkansas State @ UL Monroe Preview

General Information

Week: Week 5
Kick Off (at stadium): 02:00 PM CDT
Stadium: Malone Stadium
Capacity: 27,617
Elevation: 92 ft
HFA Rating: 3.1
Playing Surface: Artifical Turf

Betting Information

Spread UL Monroe -2.5
Total (O/U) 56.5
Expected Score ARST 27.0 - 29.5 ULM
Power Rank Implied Line Arkansas State +6.2
Prediction Markets UL Monroe 53% Win Chance (Kalshi)

Weather Conditions

Forecast for: February 02, 2026
Clear

Clear

41.3°F

Wind Chill: 36.5°F
Wind: 7.4 mph SW
Gusts: 15.4 mph
Precipitation: 0.0"
Humidity: 61%
Rain Chance: 0%
Snow Chance: 0%

Travel & Rest

Arkansas State (Away)

This Week: 242.3 miles
Last Week: 736.4 miles
Season Total: 2227.1 miles
Body Clock Time: 14:00
Rest Days: 7

UL Monroe (Home)

This Week: 0.0 miles
Last Week: 1695.0 miles
Season Total: 2547.4 miles
Body Clock Time: 14:00
Rest Days: 7

Line Value Calculator

Adjust factors to calculate your projected line

Betting Information
Current Line UL Monroe -2.5
Total Points 56.5
Blue Chip Analytics Power Rating
Arkansas State -10.6
UL Monroe -16.8
Travel Impact
Away Team Travel 242 mi
Home Team Travel 0 mi
Rest Even
HFA: Malone Stadium
Capacity 27,617
Elevation 92 ft
Weather: Clear
Temperature 41.3°F
Wind Speed 7.4 mph
Your Line UL Monroe -6.2
Implied Value —

What are the key factors for Arkansas State vs UL Monroe?

Arkansas State: Key Factors

UL Monroe: Key Factors

What happened in the game?

Arkansas State travels 242 miles to this game, a short road trip.

UL Monroe won by 12 in a double-digit victory.

UL Monroe covered the spread, covering by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 12.5 points.

How do Arkansas State and UL Monroe compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favour Arkansas State (-10.6) over UL Monroe (-16.8) by 6.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UL Monroe faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UL Monroe brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.1). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input — cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas State and UL Monroe?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Model & Methodology

UL Monroe won and UL Monroe covered the spread.