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Week 5 •
Malone Stadium

Arkansas State16 @FINAL 28UL Monroe

1-3 Sun Belt Power rating: -10.6
2-1 Sun Belt Power rating: -16.8

By · Last updated

How did the line hold up?

Market line
ULM -1.5
PM Implied
ULM -0.6
Blue Chip model
ARST -2.9
Edge
-4.4ARST
See details
◂ favors ARSTfavors ULM ▸Market: ULM -1.5
‹ 6.2 ARST
The power ratings row was edited directly, please click reset to adjust by team
ULM
no impact
no impact
no impact
no impact
2 ARST2 ULM4 ARST4 ULMModel: ARST -2.9

Betting information

Spread
ULM -1.5
Total
55.5
Odds implied score
ARST 27.0 – 28.5 ULM
Prediction markets
ULM 53% win chance (Kalshi)

DraftKings · as of July 8, 2026

UL Monroe defeated Arkansas State 28–16 in a double-digit victory. UL Monroe covered by 10.5; Game went Under by 11.5. The market closed at UL Monroe -1.5 and the Blue Chip model made it Arkansas State -2.9 - a gap of 4.4 points toward Arkansas State, of which 3.6 points were beyond the model's measured factors. That was an information gap - the market pricing something the model does not carry - rather than a measured edge. Blue Chip Analytics had rated Arkansas State 6.2 points stronger on a neutral field.

What were the weather conditions for Arkansas State vs UL Monroe?

At kickoff, conditions at Malone Stadium were Clear, 78°F with winds of 6 mph. Weather is not expected to be a meaningful factor in this game. Historical weather data for this game is preserved in the panel alongside. Weather data is sourced from WeatherAPI.com.

What happened in the game?

Arkansas State travels 242 miles to this game, a short road trip.

The trip crosses none of the distance or time-zone thresholds that have measured a price, so travel is not a factor here.

UL Monroe won by 12 in a double-digit victory.

UL Monroe covered the spread by a solid margin.

The total went Under by 11.5 points.

How do Arkansas State and UL Monroe compare on power ratings?

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings favor Arkansas State (-10.6) over UL Monroe (-16.8) by 6.2 points on a neutral field. Despite playing at home, UL Monroe faces a power rating deficit. Check whether the market spread accounts for this gap. UL Monroe brings one of the stronger home environments in the FBS to this matchup (Blue Chip HFA: 3.3). Add this to the neutral-site differential to arrive at a venue-adjusted line.

Blue Chip Analytics power ratings represent expected point margin against an average FBS opponent on a neutral field, calculated from game data sourced via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD). They are one input: cross-reference with the travel, rest, and weather data above before drawing conclusions.

Where can I find more data on Arkansas State and UL Monroe?

Sources

Game & Team Data

Weather

Travel & Rest

Model & Methodology

UL Monroe won and UL Monroe covered the spread.

Conditions

as of September 27, 2025 Game-time

Clear

78°F

Rain0%
Precip0.00"
Humidity54%
Wind6 mph N
Gusts12 mph
Wind map for Arkansas State at UL Monroe: aerial view of Malone Stadium, wind from the N at 5.6 mph, gusting to 11.6 mph

Quick facts

Week
Week 5
Kickoff (local)
02:00 PM CDT
Venue
Malone Stadium
Capacity
27,617
Elevation
92 ft
Surface
Artificial Turf

Travel and rest

Arkansas StateAway UL MonroeHome
This week242 miles0 miles
Last week736 miles1,695 miles
Season total1,220 miles2,228 miles
Body clock14:0014:00
Rest7 days6 days

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